1) It is found that each time it is strongly correlated with the Bitcoin halving cycle. This also allows some people to make a lot of money in these bull markets based on this judgment. Take the last bull market as an example, there were three years of bear market in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Because the big bull market in 2021 originated from the Bitcoin halving in May 2020, the price of Bitcoin is the market index of the currency circle, and its rise and fall determines the bull-bear dividing line of the currency circle.
2）
On the one hand, Bitcoin halving is because the block reward is halved, and the mining machine, electricity and labor costs invested by miners must be less than the Bitcoin reward they receive, which means that the Bitcoin price must be raised. On the other hand, market confidence returns, institutional and traditional incremental funds enter the market, and sentiment begins to Fomo.
3）
Then, after each round of Bitcoin halving, there will be new narratives and hot spots to drive market speculation and take over the overflow of Bitcoin value. For example, the DeFi hype in 2020, the popularity of NFT, and the popularity of GameFi and the metaverse all contributed to the outbreak of the bull market in 2021. The early stage of the last bull market originated from the Bitcoin halving and ended at the end of 2021. From this perspective, the economic cycle of the cryptocurrency circle can basically be summarized as a two-and-a-half-year bear market and a one-and-a-half-year bull market.
4）
My personal expectations for the cryptocurrency market next year: Bitcoin spot ETF application approved + Bitcoin halving + Fed rate cut expectations + regulatory policy implementation + Wall Street institutions and consortiums entering the market to predict the future trend and price of Bitcoin. I think the bull market is not too far away. We have survived such a difficult market before, and next year's market is worth looking forward to.