Yesterday, the positive news that the US CPI was lower than expected still failed to stimulate the market to rise. This may be because the market is still quite panic about the interest rate hike on July 27, so it continues to maintain a cautious investment sentiment.

In fact, we need to understand that the rise at the beginning of this year was due to the fact that Bitcoin fell too much last year, so it rebounded from an oversold situation at the beginning of the year. The reason why the rebound was at the beginning of the year was that everyone expected that interest rates would stop rising or even fall in 2023, and BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin ETF boosted the rise.

But now we know that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain high interest rates throughout 2023, and it is still unknown when BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin ETF will be approved, so this bullish enthusiasm quickly returned to rationality. In addition, the global economic situation is still very bad, and everyone is barely holding on, so everyone's investment sentiment has returned to a cautious attitude.

Driven by the potential benefits of Bitcoin spot ETF, BTC quickly rose to around $30,000, and then experienced two weeks of volatility, failing to break through the previous high. Before the ETF gets an official response, the market will not end, Bitcoin will fluctuate and rise, and popular altcoins will also have opportunities to perform. Regulatory risks may still come back, and the market outlook is cautiously optimistic.

In the overall correction in June, USDT de-anchoring confirmed the short-term bottom of BTC, and the chips were changed hands during the decline, laying the foundation for a new round of rise. Old Wall Street institutions such as Blackrock applied for Bitcoin spot ETFs, which pushed the market to rise rapidly. BTC returned to the previous high and is expected to fluctuate upward in the next month. The leading altcoin BCH rose by more than 200% in two weeks. The market risk appetite has rebounded, and popular altcoins will have performance opportunities.

The application of the Bitcoin ETF by the old Wall Street institutions seems to be well prepared. In terms of time, the SEC will make a decision on the ARK Bitcoin spot ETF on August 13 at the latest, which means that we may have a hot market for about a month. During this period, smart money is willing to buy the bottom of every Bitcoin callback, so it is difficult for Bitcoin to fall sharply, and it will continue to rise after experiencing shocks.

Although BCH has performed very well, its market value has exceeded 5 billion US dollars, and further growth requires huge funds. Many altcoins are still at a relatively low position, and once a new narrative emerges, they will perform well. With the recovery of market risk appetite, as long as BTC remains volatile, popular altcoins have great hope of outperforming the market.

Although the BTC's callback in this rise is not large and the current situation is also favorable to bulls, we should also note that macro and regulatory risks are still not negligible and may cause unexpected disturbances to the market. Therefore, we remain cautiously optimistic that the rise of BTC will not be smooth sailing, and the volatility may last longer than expected.

The Fed can raise interest rates 1-2 more times at most. If there is no more rate hike after September, does it mean that we will enter a bull market? I still maintain my speculation from last year and think it is unlikely. On the surface, the negative factors have been eliminated. In fact, when you can no longer see the negative factors in the market, it is precisely the beginning of potential risks.

This year will not be a bull market, mainly because the liquidity of funds is too poor and the market is generally short of money. The core positive factors that catalyze the bull market are basically in 2024-2025. Although the current inflation rate has dropped to 3%, it is still too high for the Federal Reserve's 2%.

After the last rate hike, the market will maintain the interest rate unchanged for a period of time, and BTC will repeatedly wash the market and fluctuate upward

You can pay attention to these two currencies later

Recently, the market liquidity is poor, and all kinds of idiots are flying around. $NOVA/$KUMA, which are bad narratives and bad models, can be hyped up recently. This shows that the market may soon have a great innovative project. I guess the focus of the next wave: blockchain games (full-chain games)

LORDS

1. Staknet will be upgraded soon

2. Starknet’s first cooperative on-chain game project is also the first token on it

3. Full-chain games are a hot topic in Web3 games in the second half of the year. $LORDS is a 2-year-old project and a full-chain leader

4. It is consistent with the narrative of community promotion, no capital institutions involved, strong community consensus and unity, and always facing bankruptcy. The community raised 6.35 times more than the original fundraising of more than 3 million (too lazy to draw too much details)

5. There are enough narrative leaders, the complexity and sophistication that the cryptocurrency community likes, and a strong community consensus

6. Hold coins and list them on Binance.

SSV

After the Shanghai upgrade, ETH deposits and withdrawals can be freely made with only some waiting time. For major protocols and ETH holders, there is a strong motivation to stake the ETH remaining in their accounts to make a profit. The current ETH stake rate is about 22%, and the mainstream public chain stake rates are generally around 65%, so there is still huge room for growth.

After the Shanghai upgrade, the number of ETH staked has increased rapidly, from 18 million to 26 million. It can be foreseen that ETH stakes will continue to grow. SSV's first-mover advantage almost puts it in a monopoly position. It is currently almost the only infrastructure service provider that can be chosen. Individual stakers and major LSD protocols (such as Lido) prefer to cooperate with SSV.

As a payment medium, SSV has actually become the underlying currency of LSD. When the amount of pledge increases rapidly and pledgers need a large amount of $SSV to pay node operators, the price will rise. At the same time, if the upward trend is established, pledgers may reserve $SSV in advance to reduce payment costs, which will also cause the price to rise.