The fourth Bitcoin halving officially saw the reward paid to miners reduced from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. The average fee paid in Bitcoin has dropped dramatically just one day after reaching a record high of $128 on April 20, the day of Bitcoin’s fourth halving. According to mempool.space, the average fee for medium-priority transactions has dropped to $8 to $10.
Just one day earlier, Bitcoin’s total fees were $78.3 million, more than 24 times that of Ethereum, according to Crypto Fees. On the day of the halving, a staggering 37.7 BTC ($2.4 million) was paid to Bitcoin miner ViaBTC in the Bitcoin halving block at block height 840,000, with much of the demand coming from memecoin and non-fungible token enthusiasts who competed to write and etch scarce Satoshis through the Runes protocol, a new token standard launched at the halving block.
Now that the halving is complete, the abnormal block rewards have returned to stability, and even the average block fee is well below 3.125. Experts are beginning to turn their attention to the direction of Bitcoin at the next halving in 2028.
Although miners are technically paid less for their efforts to secure the network, many analysts generally believe that the halving event is a harbinger of a significant increase in Bitcoin prices - as miners react to the new Bitcoin hitting the market. "Supply shocks" are significantly reduced.
In an interview, Pav Hundal, chief analyst at Swyftx, predicted that based on the price movements that occurred after the previous halving, the price will increase by at least 100% by the 2028 halving, which will bring the price of Bitcoin to around $120,000.
“Our core scenario is that this trend will continue and see high double-digit or triple-digit price gains at the next halving,” he said, adding that it would be “difficult” for investors to imagine bitcoin being worth anything less than its current price of $60,000 at the next halving.
BTC Markets CEO Caroline Bowler noted that she is watching external forecasts from investment banking firms such as Standard Chartered, which said Bitcoin could be worth as much as $200,000 by the end of 2025. “That thesis has continued to gain support in the short time we’ve seen ETF participation,” she said.
Jonathon Miller, managing director of Kraken Australia, noted that while discussion around the halving naturally turns to price predictions, he sees the event as “a reminder that progress is being made in terms of global adoption.”
Halving could put miners in a bind
However, there are still some concerns about the just-passed Bitcoin halving and the next one in 2028 — the main one being that miner rewards could be reduced to a level that makes Bitcoin mining unprofitable in the long run.
On January 26, Cantor Fitzgerald released a report outlining that the price of Bitcoin needs to stabilize above $40,000 if the majority of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies want to stay in business long-term.
At current prices, this isn’t a problem for most miners. However, if Bitcoin falls below $40,000, it could raise concerns about earnings.
