Last night, the U.S. official released unemployment rate data for April. Market expectations were 3.8%, but the actual published value was 3.9%. At the same time, non-farm employment growth in April was only 175,000, far below market expectations of 243,000.
This series of data showed overall weakness, with the unemployment rate exceeding expectations and employment growth significantly lower than forecast. These data seemed to ignite the market's sensitive nerves. After the data was released, traders quickly adjusted their forecasts for the Fed's rate cut schedule, bringing forward the timing of the first rate cut from November to September. Markets generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year. The consequences of the current high interest rate policy are already beginning to show, including an unexpected rise in unemployment and a significant slowdown in employment growth. Changes in these economic indicators provide favorable conditions for the Federal Reserve to return to its interest rate reduction policy.