Many people have felt the biting cold recently, and many friends in the circle have begun to doubt whether we are still in the bull market. The main reasons for this feeling should be the altcoin market with more declines than increases, the weak opening of new coins, and the confusion of not seeing the hot sectors.

However, looking at $BTC, which is still fluctuating between 62K-65K, it seems that the bull market is still there.

In the final analysis, the root cause of this situation is -- liquidity shortage.

That is, after the BTC ETF opened this blood transfusion artery for a period of time, the market has not welcomed other fresh blood to enter. With the continuous entry of heavyweight new altcoins, the circle cannot reach a consensus on the hot sectors and each plays its own game, resulting in further dilution of liquidity.

Why are everyone eyeing Binance? Because Binance has the best spot liquidity in the current crypto market. But when Binance's secondary performance is not good after the new listing, it means that the liquidity of the market is really very poor, and the effect of other new listings can only be worse.

The sudden rise of Meme tokens in this cycle is largely a rebellion of retail investors against the existing power class in the currency circle. Anyway, you guys are all here to suck liquidity and can't reach a consensus. You can't even come up with a decent Ponzi narrative, so why don't you just play the 100% circulating Meme. How much money comes in, how many people play, and how the chips are all visible. I would rather play Pvp simply and roughly than take the blunt knife to cut my meat.

Now, the liquidity of blue-chip altcoins in the market is even less, what to do?

Boil, wait for the water to come

The general environment of the lack of liquidity in the currency circle is the global liquidity shortage caused by the delay in the US dollar interest rate cut. Although cryptocurrencies are called decentralized and BTC is called digital gold, they are still financial risk assets at this stage. Altcoins are even more of a bubble built on risky assets. The narrative is actually still very fragile and will inevitably be affected by the big economic cycle. It is temporarily unable to be independent.

Recalling the big bull market in 2020-2021, in addition to the awesome Ponzi concepts such as Defi, what is more important is the flooding of money and the huge amount of funds entering the market. Whether retail investors or institutions, they all desperately want to get more water, and at that time, risky assets are the buckets for collecting water. The more risky assets one has, the more water one can get.Even without an ETF, BTC has become one of the targets of mainstream financial institutions in the United States. After all, it can be speculated. The overflow of funds went to the copycats, creating a copycat bull market.

When will the water come?

In the short term, @CryptoHayes mentioned the Quarterly Refinancing Announcement (QRA) expected to be released by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on May 1. Hayes detailed some fiscal decisions that Yellen might make, which he believes will re-accelerate the development of the cryptocurrency market.

"As expected, tax revenues added about $200 billion to the Treasury General Account (TGA). Forget the Fed's 2024 Q2 meeting in May. The refund announcement will be made next week. What game will Yellen play? Here are some options:

1. Stop issuing Treasury bonds by reducing TGA to zero, which means injecting $1 trillion in liquidity.

2. Shift more borrowing to Treasury bills, thereby draining funds from RRP (reverse repurchase agreements), which means injecting $400 billion in liquidity.

3. Combine 1 and 2, no long-term bonds, only notes, and reduce TGA and RRP at the same time, which will inject $1.4 trillion in liquidity. Trillion dollars of liquidity.

If any of the above three situations occur, investors can expect stocks and cryptocurrencies to rebound.

In the medium and long term, wait for the world's major countries, led by the United States, to enter a rate cut cycle, and the funds in the market will begin to become abundant. The reason why funds in the market have become conservative recently is that everyone has begun to predict that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once in 2024, which is far lower than the approximately 6 25 basis point rate cuts they expected at the beginning of this year.

But no matter what, interest rates will always be cut. I have repeatedly said before that time is our friend, and there will always be a time to open the wallet. What we have to do is to live until then and not leave the table.

Looking back at the poor liquidity of the cottage now, is it really a bad thing? Not necessarily. When the market is not good, when everyone is afraid, a little bit of the market will be magnified, but once the market improves, a little pull will also be magnified. So either take advantage of the downturn of the cottage to slowly invest in some favorite targets, or always pay attention to the fundamentals of good liquidity and rush in as soon as the market starts to reverse.

The current market is also waiting for an opportunity, a catalyst, not a direct shock death. There are still opportunities to make money in the market, whether it is new or furious, lower expectations, control risk exposure, and grab some money with high certainty. Don't rush to laugh at the new coins on Binance, especially the pool. After all, from a historical perspective, almost none of them have not set new highs.

It is indeed difficult to make money recently. Don't bother, wait for the wind to come, and encourage each other.