The fourth month of the year started badly and is now drawing to a close, filled with days of decline. BTC is below $64,000. While Bitcoin may be willing to hit new lows, bulls are currently keeping it relatively active above $60,750, preventing further declines. However, a major breakout is expected next week. What is Dogecoin aiming for?
At the time of writing, DOGE is priced at $0.1489. With Bitcoin weakening, it seems unlikely that Dogecoin will end April well. Risk market pressure increased after the release of US GDP on April 25, hitting cryptocurrencies across the board. The US economy grew 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, below the expected 2.5%, and the monthly PCE rose 0.3%, putting the Fed in a dilemma.
At the beginning of 2024, investors expected the Fed to make six 25 basis point rate cuts, but now they predict a maximum of two 25 basis point cuts. The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to a 5-month high of 4.739%. Interest in Dogecoin futures is also waning. On April 27, the size of open interest fell to $865.63 million. About a month ago, its peak reached $2.21 billion, showing how quickly investors are fleeing risk.
The futures outlook points to a decline. If Powell does not announce at the May 1 meeting that we will delay the 2% inflation target for a few years in favor of slow cuts, even at the expense of stickiness (to achieve balanced growth), the bearish outlook will dominate on the macro side.
The price of Dogecoin is likely to continue the selling trend triggered by the downtrend line and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA). As long as resistance in this area is not overcome, the probability of a significant rebound in the price of DOGE is weak. Moreover, as Bitcoin continues to close at lower levels, there is no reason to remain optimistic.
The key level is a close above $0.159, below which the price of DOGE is trading as of this writing. In the coming days, there is a risk of a sharp drop to the $0.12 and $0.10 levels. In the opposite scenario, the targets could be $0.159 and $0.18.
