#比特币减半 #Meme #大盘走势
Hello, brothers. Today I would like to share some of my recent thoughts. From 5,000 to 100,000, there are only two ways to double 20 times!
One is to get rich by copycats, buy 20 times the coins;
The second is to use the rolling method, rolling contracts and all-in.
Get rich by copycats, don't be picky in the bull market, don't believe in the bear market
Build positions on the left side, start with the mainstream, and change to copycats with the trend
Don't increase positions when rising, don't hold on when falling, and don't hesitate when breaking arms
The layout is small and refined, don't move when you are interested, and only eat three-quarters full
Light positions can create miracles, make money in three steps, and get rich as steady as a dog
1. The currency circle rises and falls together. The rise in the bull market does not need value support, but only a reason for the rise;
2. Don't talk about faith with the copycat, cut your losses when you should;
3. Time is Bitcoin's friend, but it is the enemy of the copycat. 4. The value foundation of the copycat lies in continuous innovation. Once innovation stagnates, the value will collapse. The value foundation of Bitcoin lies in its immutability. If you are trapped by Bitcoin, there will definitely be a day to get rid of it, but the copycat may not be
5. The only ones suitable for left-side trading are Bitcoin and Ethereum. The biggest risk of the copycat is zero
6. At the beginning of a bull market, only BTC is healthy, so first build a position in Ethereum, so that you will not miss the opportunity when it rises, and you will not be afraid of being trapped when it falls;
7. The copycat has no defensive ability;
8. Do not increase your position when it rises, position management is very important - Try with a light position, and then add a large position after the rise. It is difficult not to lose money in this way;
9. The position of Bitcoin and Ethereum cannot be less than half
10. When playing Shanzhai, you must take the initiative to miss the opportunity and sell it at a loss
11. Fall in one place, get up in another place--lose money here, make it back in another place;
12. The biggest cost after being trapped is the opportunity cost;
13. The core of playing Shanzhai is to know how to sell;
14. Eat only three-quarters full, the fish head and tail are not so delicious, leave them to the dealer to wait for the leader to come out before eating the fish belly with high certainty:
15. When playing Shanzhai, you must have a light position. A heavy position will ruin your mentality, and your mentality will ruin your operation. The operation will lead to loss of money.
Among the 1,000 ways to get rich in the currency circle, only this one may be suitable for you, because the above methods may give you a 10% chance to make 10 times, a 1% chance to make 100 times, and it is almost impossible for you to make 1,000 or 10,000 times. Those who succeed are survivors.Without further ado, let me introduce this speculative method of using small amounts to win big amounts with a 100-fold odds ratio and a high winning rate. I personally experienced that it was effective, so I won't talk about the results. If it's not reliable, I won't share it.
This method is divided into floating profit plus short and floating plus long, referred to as the floating cloud series. Below I will use floating profit plus long to briefly explain:
Assuming that you start with BTC10,000 USD, you use 0.01 BTC margin to open a long position in BTC futures with a leverage multiple of 5 times, and always maintain 5 times leverage during the period. As long as there is profit, continue to increase your position. When it reaches 30,000 USD, how much is your 0.01 BTC? 5 times leverage, every 20% increase, the principal doubles, ensuring that the leverage multiple remains unchanged, 200% is approximately equal to 10 20% increases, and the final profit of the principal 0.01 BTC is 0.01*2 to the power of 10 = 10 BTC, which is about 1000 times the profit, and about 3000 times according to USDT.
But if you withdraw 20% from any point during this period, you will be liquidated. According to my observation and summary, the volatility of BTC will basically appear more than 5 times a year with a drop of more than 50% or a gain of more than 100% and no 20% retracement during the period. In the past few years, there have been many records of 80% drop without 20% increase (312, 12000 to 3400 futures) and 200% increase without 20% retracement (19000-41900). Suppose you come to Fuyun once a day, each time with a principal of 0.01 BTC, and lose up to 3.65 BTC a year. The probability of zeroing each time is 95%. But there are 5-10 opportunities every year for you to make a profit of more than 10 BTC, at least one opportunity to make a profit of 100-1000 BTC, and many opportunities to make several times the profit.
I calculated the winning rate many times and counted the fluctuation range of BTC. The winning rate is about 100 times return once in 20 times, and the rest are all counted as zero for the convenience of calculation, that is, the winning rate is 5%, the odds are 10000%, ev=5%*10000%=5. According to Kelly's formula F=pw-(pl/w), f is the betting ratio, w is the winning funds divided by the losing funds, pw is the winning rate, and pl is the probability of losing. f=5%-(95%/(100/1)=5%-0.95%=4.01%. The conclusion is: divide the money you can afford to lose into 25 parts, and then use 5x leverage to increase your position. When you reach 100x profit, stop profit immediately. If you don't get 100x profit, you'd better continue to increase your position even if your position is liquidated. Persevere. If your position is liquidated, wait for the next Fuyun. In terms of direction, if the position retreats 20% from the highest point, you will go short on Fuyun. If the position rebounds 20% from the lowest point, you will go long on Fuyun.
