A few days ago, I saw an argument that this round of bull market is the first "mutual non-acceptance" bull market.
(I can't sleep, so I just write a few sentences)
I won't comment on this view, but I'll just say what I want to say.
Although this round of Bitcoin's rise has led to a wave of market enthusiasm, I actually don't want to admit that this is a real bull market.
Why do I have this view? The core is that the real wealth-making effect has not come out. I think the bull market is a game that uses the market to reasonably transfer wealth, then expands the bubble, and finally the latecomers take over. This time, the surge in Bitcoin has led to the rise of the market, and there is a wealth-making effect, but it is not large, only a small range.
The wealth-making effect has not reached the state of bustling, and it has not effectively activated or tempted more people outside the market to enter, so there are not so many people to take over, and the communication effect is a bit worse, so I think the bull market has never really arrived.
In this round, I think it is the passage of Bitcoin ETF and the intervention of traditional financial models that have changed the environment of the crypto market and created a new narrative environment, thus ushering in a wave of funds, and many tokens in this round have actually not outperformed Bitcoin.
The driving force of Bitcoin's price this time was purely provided by American traders. The driving force of Asian and European markets was insufficient. I once said that the bull market may not appear because of the Asian market, but the bull market will lack the Asian market. The momentum of the Asian market in this round is obviously insufficient. Although a lot of funds have flowed in, a lot of funds have been retained and have not been fully utilized.
Moreover, at this stage, everyone is short of money, from the traditional real economy to traditional finance. Whether professional or non-professional, the traditional financial circle in China is cutting each other. It's not that they want to, but there is too little money. If they can't cut leeks, they can only cut peers. In the past, win-win in the circle could be kind to others and win together. But now it can only be reduced to mutual calculation and mutual defense. This is not their subjective intention, but they are just being swept away by the environment.
If there are many microorganisms and algae in a fish pond, all fish will have something to eat, and a benign ecological cycle will be formed. However, if the basic algae in the fish pond disappears and becomes less, then the ecological chain cannot be closed, and the fish that can survive can only survive by attacking other fish. Then herbivorous fish will become carnivorous fish, until only some high-attribute fish exist in the fish pond.This is the law of the jungle.
In fact, the basic laws of biology are adapted to many environments, and the financial market is just a mapping area of human nature and laws.
So, I think that in the current situation, only when the world solves the problem of money and everyone finds a reasonable opportunity to make most countries and economies profit and reduce pressure, will a real bull market come.
If it is a God's perspective, it should be that the big countries first compete with each other, then rank, and then share profits, solve the crisis of the big countries themselves, and then the big capital groups of the big countries, driven by dividends, use the money earned to promote the development of the market, and then do the harvest. And the process of promoting the final harvest of the market forms a real bull market.
The essence of capital is also law and human nature, and there is always the existence of the strong harvesting the weak in the law. Because there are only those resources on the entire earth, if you want to promote the development of the times and strengthen yourself, you must let the strong form a tacit understanding, and then jointly create an environment. Ecology is very important. No one creates the ecological environment, no one empowers, and no one can participate in the game.
