Yesterday, the daily price of Bitcoin continued to drop by nearly 4%. Compared with the previous wave of downward movement, it is obvious that the altcoin sector played a very strong supporting role in the short term. According to the previous proportion, such a deep decline in Bitcoin would at least lead to a decline of at least 5% in the altcoin sector. After the last round of oversold, the entire altcoin sector has also clearly begun to stand up in the short term through last night's performance.
As for the short-term market, Sanshu's view is relatively clear. The correction of the entire crypto market after the unexpected decline due to geopolitical conflicts will take some time, and it is currently in this correction period. Whether the market can complete the short-term technical repair and brew the next round of new highs depends on whether the short-term bottoming process of the big cake will further hit a new low. If not, this round of shorts will end in the short term.
At present, the market's bottom consolidation period will end after the bitcoin price is officially halved the day after tomorrow. After a brief expansion of volatility, a new round of main upward wave will begin.
The US ETFs have also been bleak in the past two days. Yesterday, Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of 2,179 coins, BlackRock IBIT had an inflow of 296 coins, ARKB and BITB had outflows of 699 and 119 coins respectively. Overall, the external funds are currently affected by the decline of US stocks, resulting in a significant decline in ETF transactions. It is expected that this aspect will only be alleviated after the official handshake with Iran.
Bao continued to speak hawkishly yesterday. There is really no other way. The high inflation hanging over the Fed has shaken the foundation of the market economy. If it is not curbed, the consequences are unimaginable. There are no relatively influential data this month. There is little expectation of changes in the macroeconomic situation in the second half of the month. The focus of the market is still on the main positions and the self-repair of the technical aspects.
The bottom-fishing by big investors has indeed been quite frequent recently. In the past three days, more than 6,000 bitcoins and more than 15,000 ETH have been transferred out of CEX, and a considerable amount of $135 SOL and $450 BCH have been withdrawn. The withdrawal volume of CEX has reached the highest peak since January last year. The behavior of whales to a certain extent shows that the short-term market has reached a turning point at a relative bottom. If they cannot buy the final bottom, they will start to layout at the relative bottom.
The only part that Sanshu bought at the bottom in the early stage was Ethereum. The remaining small part of the idle funds will be used to partially cover the positions of the altcoins that have been held tomorrow, pulling down the average price. The market rebound will not come so quickly, but the signal of stopping the decline in the short term is gradually becoming clear. Be patient, the market in two months will definitely be very different from now.
The downward trend of the market is often positively correlated with the liveliness of the community. When the market is falling, no one cares. Everyone is busy raising funds to buy at the bottom, carrying floating losses and doing their own work to divert attention. When the market takes off, everyone laughs and makes money by clicking the mouse every day. The cycle goes back and forth like this, and only Uncle San has been standing at the origin, watching people coming and going and the market ups and downs.
In short, the decline of the copycat stocks is not as exaggerated as the previous decline of the big cake, which is already a positive signal.
BTC: As mentioned above, Bitcoin did not choose to break through directly, but continued to explore and choose to bottom out. From the current technical point of view, if it does not hit a new low before the 20th, the rebound trend will be realized as expected after the 20th. Whether the big risk period is over or not depends on the short-term bottom adjustment of about 2 days. Optimistically speaking, the current risk period is over, and Bitcoin positions are holding coins and waiting, and there is nothing to say. There is more than one day left before the halving, and the market is actually not very volatile day by day, so let's wait and see.
ETH: Ether was added at 3200 points, and those who saw it later entered the market at a lower level. The current exchange rate has rebounded rapidly after bottoming out. If the Federal Reserve shows a more favorable tendency for Ethereum spot ETF, it will become very likely to remain strong in the medium and long term. The short-term position is almost complete, and more conservative partners can continue to add below my price.
In terms of covering positions, the first priority is what you have in hand, and you can increase the average price appropriately. The second is the ones that are relatively resistant to declines, at least those that have not fallen below the bottom support of the daily line, such as BCH, ORDI, SOL, ONDO, DOGE, etc. ONDO is currently approaching its previous high, and there was at least 30% room for bottom-fishing yesterday. SOL should focus on the second-tier top of the position, and then the platform coins should pay attention to the two tops. Those who bottom-fished OKB yesterday also felt comfortable, and both OKB and BNB are looking at continued highs in the future. BN's new coin OMNI was cut in half after it went online. There is no profit effect in the short-term market, so be cautious in chasing it.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #Megadrop #比特币减半 #大盘走势 $BTC
