June 25, 2023 Grandpa checks in
The big cake tried to break through the pressure level again, and turned downward after breaking through 31000. Since the previous wave of highs to 31400 was accompanied by a simultaneous increase in volume, there is no need to worry about a sharp turn downward even if there is no further breakthrough in the short term. From the K-line trend, it will continue to try to break through in the short term, and the probability of a breakthrough within a few days is relatively high. If multiple attempts to break through fail, the potential energy of this wave of rise will dissipate, and we will turn to bearish. When the market is strong, we should keep a proper position in our hands, because this wave of momentum will not be too simple.
Judging from the coins on the list of rising coins, today's sector quickly switched to DeFi, and blue-chip DeFi projects rose by dozens of points, which is in line with the situation of capital spillover, first the big cake and the second cake, followed by blue chips and mainstream coins, and finally the cottage. In the future, if the big cake can maintain stability, or even continue to break through to above 31,000, and the mainstream coins rebound for a period of time, it will be a more optimistic trend, rather than only the big cake rising and failing to mobilize investors' emotions.
In the past two days of rising market, I saw many people posting screenshots of their positions being blown up or being trapped. Many people followed the so-called big V to open orders. As early as a few days ago, I said that in a long-term bear market, the price must be low. Shorting in a bear market is in line with the logic of trending market conditions, but after the negative news has brought down the market, it is irrational to short with high leverage. Although we only bought a small position at the bottom, we have 40% to 50% of the position in our hands to prepare for the subsequent market. Holding as many spot positions as possible is the primary task in a bear market.
Of course, some people also told me that they accidentally reduced their positions and are now a little worried about missing out. The logic behind keeping 40% to 50% of our positions is that we hope to make a small bull market. The bearish atmosphere in the past few days was strong, and it is understandable to sell some during the rebound. The next big cycle is still a bear market, but a bear market is only suitable for two things. The first is to collect long-term chips, and the second is to do swing trading, and the profits from the swing trading are left as chips. Because our chip prices are relatively low, as long as we follow this principle, even if there is a small bull market, we should not clear our positions, because our ultimate goal is a 25-year super bull market. From the perspective of the market trend, there is no need to continue to reduce positions in the short term. If there are any wrong signals, I will remind everyone.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
