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Macro News

1. On April 16, 2024, the China-U.S. Financial Working Group held its fourth meeting in Washington, D.C. The two sides had professional, pragmatic, candid and constructive communication on monetary policy and financial stability, financial regulatory cooperation, institutional arrangements in financial markets, cross-border payments and data, sustainable finance, anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing, financial infrastructure and other financial policy issues of concern to both sides. The meeting also heard reports from the technical expert groups of both sides on the financial regulatory frameworks of the two countries. The two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication.

2. The National Energy Administration released data on electricity consumption in March. In March, the total electricity consumption was 794.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. From January to March, the total electricity consumption was 233.73 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, of which industrial power generation above designated size was 223.72 billion kWh.

3. Liu Sushe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference that at present, all parties are very concerned about the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. The central government has decided to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds starting from this year and in the next few years, which will be used specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas. This is a major strategic decision made with an eye on the overall strategic situation of building a strong country and national rejuvenation. In accordance with the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission has studied and drafted an action plan with relevant parties to support the construction of security capabilities in major national strategies and key areas, and will start to organize its implementation after approval.

4. According to the Ministry of Commerce, on April 17, US time, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced the launch of a 301 investigation against China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries. China is strongly dissatisfied with this and firmly opposes it. We urge the US to respect facts and multilateral rules, immediately stop its wrong practices, and return to the rules-based multilateral trading system. China will closely follow the progress of the investigation and will take all necessary measures to firmly defend its own rights and interests.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices fell across the board, with the May contract of U.S. crude oil falling 2.93% to $82.86 per barrel, and the June contract of Brent crude oil falling 2.83% to $87.47 per barrel.

2. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 1.3% to $2,376.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.29% to $28.295 per ounce.

3. London base metals closed higher collectively, with LME copper futures up 0.84% ​​to $9,548/ton, LME zinc futures up 1.97% to $2,825.5/ton, LME nickel futures up 2.11% to $18,100/ton, LME aluminum futures up 0.33% to $2,570/ton, LME tin futures up 2.99% to $32,770/ton and LME lead futures up 0.93% to $2,168/ton.

4. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures up 0.37% at 1149.25 cents per bushel; corn futures fell 0.12% to 430.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures fell 2.04% to 553.25 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher at night, with soda ash up 7.38%, glass up 3.43%, methanol up 1.03%, and crude oil down 2.86%. Black series rose across the board, with iron ore up 3.6%, coking coal up 3.34%, coke up 2.28%, rebar up 1.43%, and hot-rolled coil up 1.08%. Most agricultural products fell, with rapeseed meal down nearly 1%. Most base metals closed higher, with Shanghai nickel up 1.4%, Shanghai tin up 1.19%, Shanghai zinc up 0.94%, stainless steel up 0.79%, Shanghai copper up 0.61%, and Shanghai aluminum up 0.37%. Shanghai gold fell 0.73%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.48%.

Black hot news

1. As of the week of April 17, according to the inventory analysis of Zhaogang.com, the factory inventory of building materials was 3.4092 million tons, a decrease of 442,800 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 11.50%; the social inventory of building materials was 6.9043 million tons, a decrease of 265,200 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.70%; the apparent demand for building materials was 3.8836 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous week.

2. According to Ganggu.com, as of April 17, the national building materials social warehouse was 10.2782 million tons, a decrease of 520,800 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.82%; the factory warehouse was 5.4331 million tons, a decrease of 754,800 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 12.20%; the output was 3.5529 million tons, a decrease of 41,800 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.16%.

3. BHP Group's total iron ore production in Western Australia in the third quarter was 68.13 million tons.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. Singapore's Wilmar International has released a forecast model for Thailand's sugarcane and sugar production in the 2024/2025 crushing season. Wilmar believes that Thailand's sugarcane production will jump to more than 100 million tons in the 2024/2025 crushing season. Under normal weather conditions, Thailand's sugar production will increase by 2.5 million tons to 11 million tons in the 2024/2025 crushing season. Wilmar said that in the 2023/2024 crushing season, according to our forecast, Thailand's sugarcane production is higher than market expectations, with sugarcane production reaching 82.3 million tons and sugar production reaching 8.7 million tons.

2. Since the crushing season began on October 1, 2023, as of April 15, India's sugar production has reached nearly 31.1 million tons, and of the 532 sugar mills that started crushing, only 84 mills, including 42 mills in Uttar Pradesh, are still continuing to crush. Except for Tamil Nadu, crushing in sugar mills across the country may end soon. Maharashtra, the number one sugar producing state, produced 10.92 million tons of sugar, compared with 10.59 million tons in the same period last year.

3. MIDF Research expects CPO prices to be flat in the second quarter of 2024, but is expected to rise 4.6% month-on-month to 4,410.5 ringgit per tonne in April, affected by the mild El Nino phenomenon. Looking ahead, the research house expects CPO prices to weaken to 3,946.70 ringgit per tonne in May as the unstable weather begins to normalize. MIDF Research also expects production to improve in the second quarter of 2024 before the expected mild La Nina appears in the second half of the year.

4. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said that Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a stable range of 4,000-4,200 ringgit/ton this month. The dynamics of the palm oil market this month are affected by several key factors, namely increased palm oil production, improved palm oil imports in major markets and a rebound in soft oil prices. The agency said: "Overall, palm oil price trends are consistent with its production and inventory trends, and prices usually start to strengthen from November and peak in February or March."

5. According to data from shipping research agency ITS, Indonesia's palm oil exports in March increased by 15.8% month-on-month to 1.845 million tons, compared with 1.59 million tons in February. Among them, 328,380 tons were exported to the EU, 642,054 tons were exported to India, and 266,567 tons were exported to China.

6. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) expects Brazil's soybean exports in April to be 13-14.3489 million tons, higher than the 12.73 million tons forecast last week; soybean meal exports will be 2.5814 million tons, higher than the 2.45 million tons forecast last week.

7. According to the expectations of traders surveyed by foreign media, as of the week of April 11, 2024, the U.S. net export sales of soybeans in the 2023/24 marketing year are expected to be 300,000-650,000 tons, and the net export sales of soybeans in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to be 250,000-450,000 tons; the U.S. net export sales of corn in the 2023/24 marketing year are expected to be 300,000-900,000 tons, and the net export sales of corn in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to be 0-100,000 tons.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), the average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 76.3% in the week ending April 13, compared with 75.5% on April 6; commercial crude oil inventories fell by 43,000 kiloliters to 10.78 million kiloliters; gasoline inventories increased by 65,000 kiloliters to 1.70 million kiloliters; kerosene inventories rose by 110,000 kiloliters to 1.16 million kiloliters; and naphtha inventories increased by 66,000 kiloliters to 1.42 million kiloliters.

2. An investor asked on the interactive platform whether the water index issue has been resolved. Yuanxing Energy responded that the subsequent water index acquisition work for the Alxa Natural Soda Project is being actively promoted.

3. According to sources, if the Maduro regime in Venezuela does not take steps within the next two days to implement an agreement that allows for fair elections in July, the Biden administration intends to re-impose oil sanctions on Venezuela, ending a six-month suspension of sanctions.

4. The EIA report showed that commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.735 million barrels to 460 million barrels in the week ended April 12, the highest since the week ended June 16, 2023, an increase of 0.6%, higher than the market expectation of an increase of 1.373 million barrels. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 648,000 barrels to 364.9 million barrels, an increase of 0.18%.

5. The United States stated that oil and natural gas transactions in Venezuela must be stopped before May 31.

Metal Hot News

1. According to the data from the China Passenger Car Association, from April 1 to 14, the passenger car market sold 516,000 vehicles, down 11% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. The cumulative sales so far this year reached 5.348 million vehicles, up 10% year-on-year.

2. Vale and the Brazilian state of Pará said a local court in Brazil had again suspended the operating license of the company's Sossego copper mine. Vale said the state had won an appeal that overturned the previous court ruling to restore the mine's operating license. Vale said in a document filed late on Monday that it was aware of the ruling, adding that it had not received a formal notice from the court.

3. Chilean miner Antofagasta said on Wednesday that copper production in the first quarter fell 11% from a year earlier due to lower ore grades at its Centinela operation and maintenance at the Los Pelambres mine. The company said it produced 129,040 tons of copper in the first quarter, down 32.4% from the fourth quarter of last year. Antofagasta reiterated that copper production in 2024 is expected to be between 670,000 and 710,000 tons, which is lower than analysts' expectations. The company produced 660,600 tons of copper last year. It operates four large copper mines in Chile.

4. Goldman Sachs strategist Nicholas Snowdon said at the CRU World Copper Conference that Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to soar to about $12,000 per ton in the first quarter of next year as an unprecedented shortage of ore affects the refined copper market. The copper market "will peak in the next three to five years" and the shortage of refined copper is expected to be "very serious."

5. BHP Group still predicts full-year copper production of 1.72 million to 1.91 million tonnes and third-quarter copper production of 465,900 tonnes.

6. Fed's Mester said that if inflation does not continue to fall to 2%, we may keep interest rates at current levels for longer; at some point we will start to ease policy. We don't have to rush to ease policy.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Iron ore futures surged, what are the positive factors driving this?

Galaxy Futures analysis pointed out that the current demand for downstream terminal building materials is gradually improving, scrap steel consumption is low, and molten iron production is expected to continue to rise. From the perspective of supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore will gradually improve, and there is a high probability of destocking in the second quarter. The port inventory of imported iron ore is expected to drop to about 130 million tons. The accumulation of this round of inventory has reached 30 million tons, and it is difficult to define this round of accumulation as a turning point in terms of supply and demand. The 05 iron ore has fallen in advance, and the 09 iron ore is basically not suitable for shorting. Now the core depends on the demand for downstream terminal building materials. It is expected to continue to improve in April, and the expectation gap will still be traded. Overall, the current fundamentals of iron ore are strongly supported, and the market outlook is expected to show a volatile and strong trend.

2. Urea futures have stabilized at key levels, what will be the subsequent trend?

Guotai Junan Futures analysis pointed out that under the background of repeated disturbances in export policies, the market's expectations for urea exports have increased, and the overall valuation system has changed. Before the export was liberalized, the near-term international price was the top of the valuation end. After the export expectations were generated, the international long-term price in the second quarter turned to become the bottom of the valuation end. Once the spot or the market gives export profits, export expectations will be generated, which will support the price. Therefore, from a static valuation perspective in the short term, the current valuation of urea 09 contract is 1900-2100 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate.

Today's important futures data and events at a glance

1. On April 18, Conab of Brazil announced the results of its 2023/24 sugarcane production survey. The previous survey results showed that Brazil's sugarcane production in 2023/2024 was estimated to be 677.6 million tons, and sugar production was estimated to be 46.8807 million tons.

2. On April 18, several Fed officials delivered speeches, including 21:15, Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech. Recently, the market has paid close attention to the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut this year, and paid attention to the hawkish and dovish attitudes of Fed officials.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data