In each round of bull-bear cycle transition, the total wealth of the market is always transferred back and forth between "old coins" and "new coins". We can classify coins that have been held for more than 6 months as "old coins", and coins that have been held for less than 6 months as "new coins".

From bear to bull, old coins are constantly sold (moved) and turned into new coins, making the realized market value of new coins higher and higher, forming a wealth transfer. From bull to bear, new coins are no longer sold (moved) and turned into old coins, making the realized market value of old coins higher and higher, and wealth returns to old coins again. So flowers bloom and fall, repeating over and over again...

The market always has two sides; for every profitable investor, there is always another investor who gets those BTC at a higher cost. We can observe the cycle changes through the fluctuations of the realized profit share of different coin ages. For example, the growth of the wealth share of new coins under 6 months can be used to visualize the progress of new investors pouring into the market.

During the past two bull markets, the wealth share of new coins reached between 85% and 95%, indicating that new holders have reached saturation. If the proportion of new coins in realized market value reaches a peak, it means that almost all the wealth in the market is taken over by new coins. Once saturation is formed, it is a signal of peaking.

Since the beginning of 2023, this indicator has risen sharply, from 30% on January 1, 2024 to 52% today. Obviously, the speed of wealth transfer is too fast. If it continues at this pace, the bull market will end in at most half of the time. Therefore, it is time to stop and make necessary adjustments so that capital can roughly find a balance between long-term holders and new demands.

Sometimes, slow is fast, and you can't rush... #BTC