CryptoQuant, a crypto market analytics platform, thinks that Bitcoin halving effects are waning and the upcoming event will have a smaller impact on BTC's value.

The firm noted in its weekly crypto report that the continued decline of new BTC, as compared to the amount long-term holders are selling, will determine post-halving prices.

Bitcoin's monthly issuance has dropped to 4% of the total BTC supply. Before the first, second, and third halving events, Bitcoin mining represented 69%, 27%, and 10% of the available BTC supply. Last year, Bitcoin issuance averaged 28,000 per month, compared to the 417,000 BTC that long-term holders unloaded during the same period.

Demand from permanent BTC holders also exceeded issuance for the first time in history, with these investors adding approximately 200,000 BTC to their balances monthly, which is a long way from 28,000 BTC being mined.

After the Bitcoin halving on April 20, the monthly mined amount will drop to approximately 14,000, which will allow the increase in demand to push BTC prices higher.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin demand growth from large holders and whales fueled post-halving price rallies. Current demand growth is hovering around 11% monthly, indicating that this factor is the main catalyst behind BTC increases.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high ahead of the halving for the first time last month. This rally was triggered by increased demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which launched in January.

Meanwhile, analysts believe that post-halving selling pressure from OG BTC holders (those who own coins that are 5+ years old) will increase.

“Expenditures from OG Owners are currently around 8% per annum and have historically been 1.1%, current removal (orange area) is 1% per annum.It stands at 8 and will drop to ~0.8% annually after this month's halving,” the report stated.