On April 10, the crypto market was affected by the potential high inflation rate in the United States. The BTC spot ETF ended its net inflow momentum and began to see net outflow again. At the same time, the price of cryptocurrencies also fell into a weak trend. #CPI数据 #大盘走势

Just last night, the US released the CPI data for March. According to market news, the data exceeded market expectations. It is worth noting that the "exceeding expectations" here means that the market generally believes that the inflation rate will rise again. This means that the potential inflationary pressure is very huge.

Data showed that the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year in March; after excluding food and energy, which are more volatile, the core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. All four figures were 0.1 percentage point higher than market expectations.

Affected by this, the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell across the board, and the spot price of gold fell by 1%. In addition, the probability of a rate cut in June, which was no longer optimistic in the market, was basically "disappeared" from the swap market bets. Moreover, the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which was fully digested by the swap market, was postponed from September to November.

Negative news from macroeconomic factors has created upward pressure on the market in the short term, creating expectations of net outflows from BTC spot ETFs, which has further reduced market demand for crypto assets.

It is worth noting that the weak momentum may continue this week because, on Thursday local time, the United States will also release March PPI data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the more sensitive minutes of the Federal Reserve's March monetary policy meeting.

Without taking into account the "dovish" remarks continued by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other officials, and only respecting the data, CoinLeizhen believes that continuing to postpone the expectation of interest rate cuts to control inflationary pressure will be the most likely possibility, and reiterating the possibility of interest rate hikes and the expected plan of quantitative tightening (QT) policy may be the "highlight".

It is important to emphasize that this may cause further panic in the market for a short period of time, but please do not worry too much, because BTC is more popular than ever before. Of course, in the short term, this may only be limited to BTC. For most altcoins, it is an indisputable fact that they have fallen into a technical correction.

The approval process of Hong Kong’s own BTC spot ETF has far exceeded everyone’s expectations, and the participation of domestic fund giants Harvest Global and China Asset Management may send a positive signal for domestic crypto asset investment.

According to Tencent Finance, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission urgently updated the list of virtual asset management funds in the early morning of April 10 because it planned to announce the list of Hong Kong's first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs on April 15.

After the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission approved the first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs on April 15, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange needed about two weeks to prepare for product listing, but the entire Bitcoin spot ETF project had detailed communication and planning with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in advance, and it is expected to be completed in about 10 days. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission originally planned to list the Bitcoin spot ETF in Hong Kong around April 25, no later than the end of April.

In addition, people familiar with the matter further revealed that Hong Kong may approve spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) next week, and some ETF products may be launched this month.

Regardless of whether Hong Kong will launch a BTC spot ETF this month, the expectation has already emerged, which will greatly boost market confidence. This is also the biggest reason why BTC is unlikely to fall sharply even in the face of negative macroeconomic conditions.

As for whether friends are concerned about whether they can directly participate in BTC ETF investment, according to previous Hong Kong encryption policy speculation, there is a high probability that retail investors will have no chance to trade in the short term, but Lao Huang believes that it will not be long before products held by institutions will meet retail investors.

In the short term, the most likely scenario is that the Hong Kong residents will be the main investors. The people who hope to participate in the transaction first in China are the "high net worth" people who have stronger stress resistance. As in Hong Kong's previous policy, investors with deposits of more than 8 million may be exempted from the "partial asset" investment qualification.

Once Hong Kong passes the BTC spot ETF, it may inject tens of billions of dollars of capital into the crypto market again in a short period of time, which will undoubtedly drive up the price of BTC. #比特币减半