Several friends have left messages asking how long it will be until the real bull market is reached. I have shared this issue in my previous public account articles. I will share it again here today.
Let me tell you the answer first: We are still about a year away from the big bull market.
There are two logics behind it
First, it is the external macro, that is, the Federal Reserve’s policy of withdrawing water and releasing water
Second, it is the supply and demand relationship within encryption
Let’s talk about the external macro first. In our previous video, we talked in detail about why the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is still a sufficient condition for the crypto bull market. One very important reason here is that whether it is securities or As for the current crypto-assets, their main core driving force is still the promotion of capital led by the United States.
So based on this, we can see that it has been a year since the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates in March last year. From the perspective of inflation, we have seen the momentum of peaking. In addition, judging from the dot plot of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and reductions, The real stop of interest rate increases and the start of interest rate cuts will occur in 2024 (recent market bets may be brought forward to 23 years).
Therefore, I think this round of rise is more appropriately defined as a calf. The real bull still needs to be promoted by the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy.
The other is the internal supply and demand relationship of encryption.
From the birth of the cryptocurrency to the present, the Bitcoin halving has been a catalyst that has led to bull markets in the past because the halving caused an imbalance between supply and demand, which triggered a market rise. This has followed this pattern in the past three rounds of bull markets.
The next Bitcoin production halving will occur around May 2024.
It’s just that compared with previous halvings, this time there is much more pie in circulation than in the past. In the video in early January, I shared that more than 91% of the pie had already flowed to the market. Therefore, the halving effect may be weaker than in previous rounds, but it is still a catalyst. And I think the core leading factor is still the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy.
