Macroeconomics and news:
There are two important time points this week, CPI inflation on Wednesday and the Fed's monetary minutes on Thursday morning. Originally, the monetary minutes were the theme, but now that the market has recognized that there will be no interest rate hikes or cuts, the Fed's monetary minutes may not seem so important.
As one of the references for inflation data, CPI data was not as important as the PCE index, but after the speeches of Powell and the Fed's hawkish officials last week, the market is eager to learn about the Fed's interest rate cuts through inflation data.
So at present, CPI is the data with the highest focus this week, followed by the speeches of Fed officials in the Fed's monetary minutes after the data is released. The market can reasonably anticipate the Fed's interest rate cuts this year through CPI data and speeches.
Affected by the US employment data last Friday, the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts this year have been reduced from three to two, and the expectations for interest rate cuts in June and July have been postponed to September. In the short term, the risk market will not hope that various data will show that the interest rate cuts in the past few years will be further reduced.
In fact, my personal understanding is that there is no need to consider the data to judge the Fed's interest rate cuts for the time being, but of course market expectations are still a reference. I think that before the Fed actually cuts interest rates in the future, data and speeches are smokescreens. The problems that the United States needs to face are not just data and speeches that can alleviate them.
If last week's employment data represents the strong foundation of the US economy, why is the increase in employment so strange? It is not the increase in employment data for mainstream occupations. Is it because Americans who once tried to play badly have begun to try various jobs to fight the pressure of life?
Why is the recovery of production data accompanied by a decrease in electricity consumption? The production industry has also begun to reduce consumption with new energy?
So for some of the data currently released by the United States, the purpose of disrupting the outside world's understanding of the Fed's real actions is important.
Moreover, I am a little skeptical whether it is really necessary to wait until the risk market and the outside world are immune to the Fed's data, and suddenly announce a rate cut to catch everyone off guard.Of course, this view cannot be verified and can only be regarded as speculation.
In the crypto market, there was no data or news that required special attention on Monday.
