Analysis of March non-agricultural data
At 8:30 this evening, the March non-farm data will be released. If the employment data is higher than expected, it means that the current US economic growth is strong, which will delay the expectation of interest rate cuts and the market will fall accordingly. Otherwise, it will rise.
First of all, the market expects that the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural market will reach 200,000, which will slow down from the 275,000 new jobs in February. Judging from historical data, this growth rate is still strong; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%.
However, we can also focus on the revision of previous employment data. Compared with the revision of the data in the previous two months, the number of new jobs in December last year decreased by 43,000, and in January this year it decreased by 124,000. Under this trend, the data released this month may have to leave some "room", which will result in limited impact on the market unless the data "far exceeds" expectations, but is just "higher" than expectations.