Bitcoin likes the sound of weakening inflation, at least for a while, as reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May released on Tuesday.
The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization recently traded at $25,846, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours and off highs above $26,000 that were assumed within an hour after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a 4% increase in CPI. The rate was expected to rise by 4.1% and then 4.9% in April.
BTC has been stagnant below $26,000 for much of the past four days as investors put aside concerns about the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit against cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase and await the latest inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.
The Fed now appears likely to halt its year-long monetary hawkish campaign. Just a year ago, CPI peaked at 8.6%, prompting the Fed to raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) and causing a sharp rise in risk assets.
“While today is great news for the U.S. economy and bitcoin, tomorrow’s interest rate decision or any turbulence that could come with an impending U.S. recession could also be bullish for crypto assets,” Tim Frost, CEO of digital wealth platform The Yield App, wrote in an email to CoinDesk. “Even altcoins, some of which are down 30% over the past week, will benefit.”
Frost said the SEC's lawsuits bring "certainty" to the market by ending speculation about whether the agency would take legal action against two of the crypto industry's most prominent businesses. The lawsuits could also force courts and regulators to reach a settlement on whether cryptocurrencies should be designated as securities, commodities or otherwise.
“With U.S. investors likely now largely out of these assets, we could see the beginnings of new investment in these tokens that have absolutely nothing to do with the U.S. economy or U.S. policy,” Frost wrote.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap after BTC, rose before giving back some of its gains. ETH recently changed hands for about $1,735, roughly the same price as at the same time on Monday. Of the 19 tokens named in the Binance or Coinbase lawsuits, ALG and MATIC, the tokens for the Polygon and Algorand smart contract blockchains, recently rose 0.3% and 0.8%, while AXIE Infinite, the native cryptocurrency of gaming platform Axie, fell slightly. Binance's BNB token recently rose 3.3%. The CoinDesk Market Index, which measures the overall performance of the market, rose 0.3%.
Meanwhile, the major indices were boosted in large part by the CPI report, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 up 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to a still-robust 3.8%, while Brent crude, a gauge of energy markets, fell slightly to $73 a barrel, well below its high of more than $112 a year ago when it surged.
In an email to CoinDesk, Oliver Rust, head of product at independent inflation data aggregator Truflation, noted that energy prices and overall inflation data have declined, and there are some encouraging signs that the hot job market is cooling. These unwelcome shifts in macroeconomic indicators have been unsettling for crypto assets. But Rust also wrote cautiously that “the economy appears to be trending negative for at least a quarter.”
“The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth,” he wrote. “Thus, if GDP growth continues to decline in the second quarter, the U.S. will find itself in a precarious position. The central bank will be forced to shift its mission from reducing inflation to avoiding a recession, especially with the 2024 U.S. presidential election looming. At current interest rates, we believe this is a realistic goal, but higher rates could ultimately be the final straw.”