Recession is highly likely. On average, recessions have begun within 12.18 months of the first day of these inversions.
The prediction is that there is a 57% probability that a recession will start on or before late December 2023 and a greater than 95% probability that a recession will start on or before late July 2024.
Over the past 50+ years, inversions of the 50-day SMA of the 10-year treasury rates minus the 50-day SMA of the 3-month treasury rates have consistently preceded the start of a U.S. recession, with no false indicators.
The top graph shows that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 50-day SMA of the 3-month Treasury yield has inverted before each of the last 8 recessions in the US. The bottom graph shows a probability distribution of the time.