4.2 Market analysis
Yesterday, everyone was reminded to reduce and control their positions, and then there was a wave of market decline. Last night, the PMI data exceeded expectations, causing BTC, which had just rebounded, to fall further. The U.S. dollar index surged, and U.S. Treasury yields also rose, marking the largest single-day rise this year.
PMI exceeded expectations, providing further evidence for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates to fight inflation.
Everyone thought that interest rates would be cut in June, but the CPI released in mid-March and the PMI released yesterday exceeded expectations. According to economic data, Powell stated last week that he was in no rush to cut interest rates. Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in June is currently less than 50%.
At present, the focus is still on defense, and be careful of Friday's non-agricultural data.
The crux of inflation in the United States lies in the hot labor market, with non-agricultural data and industrial data released at 8:30 pm on Friday.
If it still exceeds expectations, it will be bad; if it falls below expectations, it will be good.
At present, we need to lower our expectations. We currently recommend a position of level 5.
If you make money quickly in this market, you won’t be able to live as long as others.
