Although ETF capital inflows are good, the market seems to still have some hidden risks. As a result, the upward trend has never come out. Of course, there are also some obvious negative factors. For example, a US judge allowed the SEC to continue to accuse CB of failing to register a securities business. The implication is that CB was indeed engaged in securities business illegally. That is, some coins on CB are securities, or the pledge business has securities attributes.
Of course, BlackRock also gave ETH a boost in time, saying that even if ETH is classified as a security by the SEC, spot ETFs may still pass. The overall counterfeit market is also correcting in line with the broader market. The exchange rate of Ethereum to BTC continues to fall below 0.051 and has now reached the 0.05 rebound point.
However, the current trend of ETH is still very weak, with no signs of strengthening. This may also be related to the negative factors of ETH. One is that the SEC is holding on to CB and wants to classify all cryptocurrencies except BTC as securities. Another is that major institutions are testing the probability of spot ETFs being approved in May. Over the past month, the negative premium of Grayscale ETHE has increased a lot, from the lowest point of 8.17% to the current 24.2%.
This shows that the market is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the ETF’s approval. Of course, this does not mean that major institutions have given up. Fidelity still submitted the ETF s-1 form to the SEC as normal, and included ETH pledge. BlackRock also encouraged that even if it is determined to be a security by the SEC, there is still a chance of approval.
In addition, there are three news today that may affect the market trend:
The first thing: a huge amount of BTC options are delivered. Today is the quarterly delivery day for options. 41% of BTC options and 46% of ETH options will expire and be delivered, with a value of over $15 billion, which may have an impact on the market.
The second thing: PCE data release, PCE data will be released at 8:30 tonight, if it is higher than expected, it will be bad news. PCE stands for personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve attaches great importance to this data, through which it understands people's consumption habits and whether there is tightening. More importantly, PCE also includes the PCE price index, which can show whether people's food, clothing, housing and transportation costs are rising or falling, which plays a very important role in the Federal Reserve's control of inflation or employment.
The third thing: Powell's speech. Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at 11:30 tonight. If he continues to insist on the view that there will be three interest rate cuts this year, it will be good. If the attitude changes, it will be bad, so what everyone needs to do is to control their positions. To invest flexibly, you must learn to judge the direction of the wind and follow the trend. The only thing that remains unchanged is change itself.
Bitcoin now has two key positions, near 71,500 and near 68,500. If it stands firmly at the first position, it will continue to rise. If it returns to around 68,500, it will continue to adjust in the future. In short, the market will not keep rising or falling. In the bull market, there is no need to worry about spot trading, and contract players just need to pay more attention.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is about to explode in April, so pay more attention to it.
Why won’t the growth rate of old mainstream currencies be higher than that of new currencies?
The market has not fluctuated much in the past few days, which is similar to what I said in the past two days. The market began to fluctuate and accumulate strength after stopping the decline.
Of course, the same point of view applies. Although we are optimistic about the future market, it does not mean that all coins will rise sharply in the future.
Judging from the market, Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate. It is difficult to rise sharply, and it is even more difficult to fall sharply. Therefore, the fluctuation of Bitcoin will give opportunities to other sectors.
The market situation in April is just like the market situation from 2023 to this year. It is a local market. Different sectors are rotating, and many sectors have never been heard of, just like last year's inscription sector.
And you will find that most of the so-called sectors that performed well in the last bull market and the so-called leading coins in those sectors will not have much market performance this year.
Many people find it difficult to understand, but it is actually not difficult to understand.
Because blockchain has been developing, it has been 4 years since the last bull market. The concepts in the last bull market were only temporary, and it does not mean that it is still developing after 4 years.
To give a simple example, like Taobao, everyone was using it in the early days because it was the first one. But with the passage of time and continuous iterations, JD.com, Douyin, etc. came out, so Taobao is declining instead.
What’s more, blockchain is still in its early stages, and many things were just concepts at the time and had not yet been implemented. Therefore, a sector that performed well in the last bull market does not mean that it will perform well in this bull market.
Those who thought that they would make money when the bull market came and that they could make money by buying anything with their eyes closed this year may not feel that much loss now.
But when the bull market gradually enters its final stage from its current early stage, and your own account does not grow much, or instead remains stagnant or even decreases, you will find that what I said is true.
But by that time, everything was too late. The bull market that we had waited for several years was over.
The selection of currencies must be done very cautiously and professionally. There is a company behind each coin. If you don’t know much about this company, and don’t even know who the project owner is, what they are doing currently, and how it relates to the development of blockchain, then it would be good if you don’t lose money, let alone make dozens of times more.
After choosing a currency, you also need to enter the market at the right time. How to judge? If you don’t understand the technology and can’t judge, you will be like some people some time ago. When they saw Bitcoin break through 70,000, they thought it would rise sharply, so they chased it, but it fell by dozens of points in a wave of correction, and they were confused.
If you enter and exit the market at the wrong time, no matter how valuable the currency is, you will not get much gain.
Just like Bitcoin, the recognized leader in the B-circle, it is very valuable, right? But if you didn’t buy it near 15,000, then now it has risen to 70,000. If you buy it again, even if it rises to 140,000, it will only double. How much can you earn?
For the coming market, I personally prefer it to be volatile. If it continues to rise, then this bull market will not be as big as imagined. Most of the huge bull markets require a deep correction and rapid recovery, and the correction and volatility must reach a certain period, and none of them can be missing. Now it is estimated that 60,000 is almost the bottom of this round of correction, and 74,000 will not break too quickly. Maybe we will have to go through a period of boring market, and then some individual copycats will perform, and wait for the next wave of rise. It is expected that there will be two to three waves of rise to reach the top, and the price can only be taken one step at a time.
Let's talk about altcoins. So far this year, it has been the big Bitcoin bull market. Although there are some performances in individual sectors of altcoins, there is no general rise. So it is indeed still the characteristic of the early stage of the bull market. In the past, each round of Ethereum also took a long time to start performing after the big Bitcoin was pulled, and then the altcoins followed suit. So wait, there are still two or three rounds of pulls to go, and it will take a month to explode.
Many people are lamenting that the coins they bought did not rise, and then they sold them as soon as they changed positions. In fact, whether a coin will rise or not is related to our perception of buying it. If it is a coin with clear fundamentals and expectations, it is always a matter of time before it rises. If it is a coin with no expectations, and you buy it just because it did not rise, the probability of it not rising is indeed quite high. In the final analysis, it is still a question of whether you have expectations or not.
So, what should we do if a coin with expected price falls instead of rising after we buy it? It is definitely wrong to hold on to it, so we must make a good stop loss at this time. There is an expected stop loss position. If the direction is wrong, we can recognize it in time and change to the next target. Even if it falls and takes off again later. It is impossible for us to make money from a coin that exceeds our cognition.
