After talking about exchange rates for so many times, I find that your understanding of exchange rates is still insufficient. Often when you look at Lao Cui's articles, you will know how to do it, especially why USDT is falling, including the fact that the U.S. dollar exchange rate has been falling even though interest rates have not been cut, and a series of underlying logic. Almost all the questions you have asked Lao Cui. It’s all the same. This time I will analyze the underlying logic of the interest rate cut and predict the future rise of the currency circle.

First of all, everyone must understand that the previous choices made by Laos and the United States to overcome the crisis were to start a process of harvest by raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet. However, the harvesting effect of this interest rate hike is not obvious. He has shouldered such great interest pressure and has indeed harvested some third world countries, of which Europe and Japan are the two most significant regions. However, the effect this time is obviously not as drastic as the previous gains. I would like to remind you that the most important point is that the purpose of raising interest rates is to withdraw funds. After allowing a large amount of US dollars to withdraw, he will also release these funds back to the market. This time he releases the US dollar market, there is a high probability that it will return to the home market (this is easier to predict, especially since the reduction of corporate taxes is to attract everyone to invest).

At this point, everyone will think of the way it was done in 2008. Shouldn’t the consistent style of the United States be to raise interest rates and shrink balance sheets, then flow into third world countries, and then harvest their assets? This is about talking about our approach. It can be said that our growth this time prompted a change in Laomei’s strategy. Because we are playing a supporting role this time, MF's debt will not be a problem, and US dollar debt will not be a problem. The US dollar foreign exchange reserves of third world countries are all supported by us. He basically replaced it with RMB debt, so after the dollars were withdrawn, they did not flow into third world countries. Based on the recent policy judgment of Laos and the United States, there is a high probability that they will resume industrial production and make another large investment in the country's infrastructure, just like us. (So ​​do we)