The first interest rate cut on July 31, 2019: The first interest rate cut after maintaining high interest rates for 7 months. The trends of BTC and Nasdaq are basically similar, except that BTC has higher volatility, and both reached new highs one month before the interest rate cut.

BTC: After the new high one month before the interest rate cut, a wave of correction started, which lasted for a month. When the interest rate cut started, it continued to rise and tried to return to new highs, but the volume could not keep up, forming LPSY, which increased by 27% in a week.

The Nasdaq started a one-month correction three months before the interest rate cut, and then reached a new high before the interest rate cut. A wave of correction started when the interest rate cut was officially announced.


(Nasdaq interest rate cut trend 👇)

(BTC interest rate cut trend 👇)


Second interest rate cut on September 18, 2019:

BTC: It rose for a week when the interest rate was cut for the first time. After forming LPSY, it continued to fall back to the price when the first interest rate cut was announced. It did not fall again until the second interest rate cut started.

The Nasdaq Composite Index: After the first interest rate cut, the price corrected, and the price maintained a range of fluctuations. When the second interest rate cut was made, the price had returned to the price of the first interest rate cut, and fell again after the second interest rate cut was announced.


The third interest rate cut on October 30, 2019: In the stage of 2-3 interest rate cuts, the bottoming time period of BTC and the Nasdaq is almost the same. They both have a bottom 2 months after the announcement of the first interest rate cut. Behavior.

BTC: After the second interest rate cut was announced, it pulled back again. It fell for a while and then stopped falling. It was not until the third interest rate cut was announced that the price returned to the price of the first interest rate cut.

Nasdaq: Time and price trends are in sync with BTC.


About 312: 312 is a black swan and cannot be predicted. However, both BTC and the Nasdaq in 312 have something in common, that is, the prices of the two have almost reached the price when the last interest rate hike was announced. BTC is 3928 and the Nasdaq is 6284 (the difference is 5% will be stepped back).

So there is a conclusion to be drawn from the boat and the sword:

1. The first three interest rate cuts were all callback phases. Before, BTC had relatively high volatility because there was no ETF. Now that there are ETFs, forces outside the circle have begun to intervene, and the volatility will definitely come down. Then this callback phase will follow. Just take the finger and go.

2. If there is a black swan, BTC may hit 29353 (the last interest rate hike on July 26, 2023).

Of course, traders do not predict, they only follow. From a historical experience, this is just a directional content, guiding me to be more cautious when facing interest rate cuts, and to have a plan in advance to deal with it if I get hit.

So what's going on now? Judging from the current meetings, the Fed has become dovish. There is a high probability that it will cut interest rates three times this year. However, the time of the interest rate cut is uncertain, but it will basically not be June. So four things can be foreseen from this: A. There will be a new high before the interest rate cut. . B. There will be a correction when the interest rate cut officially starts. C. Interest rates were cut three times, and the correction time is about 2 months. D. This wave of BTC market may last until June (now at the end of March, combined with the situation of copycats, this time it has stepped back to 60,000. Many copycats have returned to the structure of attracting funds and then inserting pins, indicating that copycats still have a chance to perform. ).

The above is just a historical review of mine. I will be more concerned about a few things in the future:

1. The volume and price of BTC returned to 73,000. (I only look at the volume and price, not the simple chart shape. Volume determines the price. When the M top is formed, it only takes one explosive volume to break)

2. The start-up situation of a well-structured copycat. (My position is basically full and has not been moved yet. If the startup does not go smoothly, I will change positions)

3. Determine the time of the first interest rate cut.

4. Whether the volume and price behavior of BTC after the first interest rate cut are in sync with the Nasdaq.

5. Whether the volume and price behavior of BTC in the half month after the second interest rate cut can form a re-accumulation structure.

The key points are the need to track the volume and price behavior of Bitcoin prices at key positions.

😊😊😊