Despite a recent 15% drop from its all-time high of $73,738, analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s price surge following its upcoming halving event.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, addressed the volatility surrounding these periods in a March 19 X post, suggesting the year post-halving offers the best “risk-reward” for investors.
He anticipates the halving, expected between April 18 and 20, will lead to the shutdown of less efficient mining operations.
On 20, Bitcoin’s value dipped to $61,593 and has seen a slight recovery to $62,690, according to CoinGecko. Edwards remains hopeful for future price increases, citing a combination of reduced supply growth and increasing traditional finance (Tradfi) interest as key drivers.
In contrast, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, attributes Bitcoin’s market dynamics to spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows rather than the halving itself.
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He predicts mining expenses will soar post-halving, necessitating a price point that ensures profitability for miners, with direct costs per coin expected to hit around $37,000.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, sharing insights with over 430,000 followers on X, predicts further price drops but maintains a bullish outlook.
He indicates that Bitcoin is in a “danger zone” for pre-halving declines, referencing historical patterns.
Previous halvings saw significant price retractions before recovery; the 2020 event witnessed a 50% pullback attributed partly to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the market stabilizing around $10,000 thereafter.
The 2016 halving resulted in a 33% decrease in Bitcoin’s value, setting the stage for substantial gains by year-end and a bull market in 2017 with a peak of $20,000.
The 2024 halving enters somewhat unexplored territory, given Bitcoin’s current price levels and enhanced institutional support, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a departure from past trends.
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