As of press time on March 19, 2024, Bitcoin plummeted by 14% in a week, Ether plummeted by 22% in a week, and altcoins fell by more than 30%. Even SOL, which has been making great progress recently, has fallen by about 10%. So many veterans asked, will there be another sharp drop tomorrow? Should we reduce our positions? Will there be a black swan 312 again? Regarding whether there will be a sharp decline tomorrow, my answer is that there is a high probability that it will continue to fall and test the support levels of 61,000, 56,000, or even 52,000. Note that I said it is possible to test, not necessarily every support. Bits are tested.
There is no market that continues to rise in the first place. There is always a need for a healthy correction to resolve the long-short differences, to eliminate the profit-making orders of more than 30,000 people who bought Bitcoin, to complete the exchange of chips, and to allow the new orders of 50,000 to 60,000 to buy Bitcoin. Then re-target a new profit target of 100,000 US dollars, and then there may be another washout around 100,000 US dollars. As for whether to reduce your position, it depends on how much your position is. If it is basically full, you can reduce your position by less than 20% to prevent you from having no chips at a lower price and feel uncomfortable. If a bottom structure is formed and you take it back again, the impact on the overall cost will be Not big, but if you already have 60-80% of your position, you can stand still and do nothing. As for those who are worried about the reappearance of the 312 black swan, if you don’t have leverage, don’t worry at all. Since it is a black swan, it is just a painful thing. Once it is over, as long as you still have some chips in your hand to buy the bottom. I told a script before, and now it seems that it is being performed according to the script I said. Of course, in this article I want to explain a key point. Accurate prediction is impossible and unnecessary. Becoming a god through a certain script is often a tried and tested trick in the traffic world. And retail investors also like to meet the so-called masters. They say which currency will rise today and show it to you in the afternoon. Tomorrow they say that the market is going to hit the top and reverse, and it will fall sharply soon. From then on, fans burst into tears of gratitude to the master, thanked him for reminding him to get in the car and escape, and followed him to the death, hugging his thigh tightly. However, I know the master too well. As long as you predict enough, the proportion of slaps in the face will be steadily close to 50%. The more you believe in a master’s accurate prediction, the more you may lose in the end. I just want to say a few words to the fans on behalf of these "masters". Isn't it bad to have nothing? Maybe the meaning of currency speculation is that it is meaningless. Since it is impossible to predict accurately, why should we let our mood be too affected by the short-term rise and fall of the market? Why should we let ourselves be like dogs, operating frequently with the short-term rise and fall of the market? I care more about what season it is now than what the weather will be like tomorrow? No one is a saint, and it is impossible not to be affected by the outside world, but when you are anxious and fearful, you should calm down and ask yourself the following set of questions: Do you already have a clear investment target?Are these investment targets assets that you think can keep you at the bottom? Have you established a reasonable investment position? Do you have enough chips to weather the ensuing plunge? Do you have enough positions to weather the next surge? Are you pursuing the multi-fold increase after most of a bull market, or are you concerned about the percentage increase or decrease of small funds in the past few days? Is the current season the beginning of the Ox or the end of the Ox? If the above answer makes you still rationally anxious, what do you need to do to make yourself confident about the entire bull market in the future? If you have made many wrong decisions due to irrationality before, how should you make a decision, reflect on it, and completely adjust your thinking to seize this bull market? What price are you willing to pay to better grasp this bull market? If the above answers have given you rational peace, if you are still anxious, what can I do to relieve my anxiety? Can you spend time with your family, do something to get more off-market funds, study something, or go on a vacation? According to my observation, in the currency circle, people who can achieve great results in this bull market generally have the following characteristics:
1. Insensitivity, emotions will not fluctuate greatly due to short-term ups and downs;
2. Focus, have a track or project that you have a deep understanding of and a large investment in;
3. Sustainability. They will not be high for two days and then slack off for many days. They can be seen to last for a long time and maintain the same action and lasting enthusiasm as before;
4. Balance, not only maintaining a high sensitivity to new things, but also being able to grasp the position and energy allocation to follow new things;
5. Decisiveness. After rational analysis, you can strike quickly like a crocodile. Whether it is a fixed investment or a one-time bargain hunting, your attitude is resolute. When you smell danger, you can be ruthless and smooth, not procrastinating, and not greedy for the last copper. .
Above, I call it the 5-force model. Let’s see what you are missing. If you want to get the correct investment ideas, investment targets and methods, or even hope to help you become a high-quality investor, welcome to join my community. , especially my VIP community, where I am with you.
