Excluding my new investment, my position is already full.

🔥1. Tell us about the current situation

Let me be a Yongzhuan blogger, and I predicted this drop correctly!

On March 12, when Bitcoin reached 73,000, I was prompted to reduce positions and take profits, and lower the leverage.

At present, Bitcoin is 65,000, and most altcoins have fallen by 30%. I think my prediction for this wave is still very good.

I still stick to my point of view: I think the lowest level will be around 62,000 (but I’m not sure if it can really be reached). Now you can boldly take positions at this position, and the upward trend will start again at the end of March and early April.

My warehouse is almost full!

🔥2. Talk about the reasons for the decline

Let’s talk about the logic of this round of decline and why I think there will be another rise at the end of March and early April:

First, we must understand a concept: In the financial market, [interest rate cuts] will bring a large amount of funds to the risk market

I prompted to reduce my position before March 12th, and then the Federal Reserve released data on March 12th: CPI data exceeded expectations, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June dropped from 80% to less than 50%.

So the result is: the interest rate cut may not be cut in June (of course, it may be cut in June, it’s just a matter of probability), but it will be postponed to July.

Since the CPI data is very good and the U.S. economy is doing very well, the Federal Reserve postpones the interest rate cut, and the interest rate cut [expected] is postponed → leading to short-term decline.

But the Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates this year, so the market’s [expectations] are still there, so it’s just a matter of [time] to cut interest rates.

This Thursday is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting. It is impossible to cut interest rates in March, but the market will judge when to cut interest rates based on the interest rate decision (highly likely to be June or July, and possibly even greater in July). Therefore, this Thursday’s time period is also more dangerous.

Still the same sentence: The [expectation] of interest rate cuts is there, and the long-term outlook is bullish. Markets rise and fall because of [expectations]

Just like the Bitcoin ETF, before it was passed, BlackRock and other institutions predicted that there was a 90% probability that it would pass, so this is [expected], directly driving the Bitcoin ETF to rise from 28,000 to 42,000.

After the Bitcoin ETF passed (also called [expected] landing), Bitcoin fell from 49,000 to 39,000. This is [expected]

As for why I ordered to reduce positions and take profits before March 12th, it was because I believed that the [expected] interest rate cut would be [postponed]. Remember, it was [postponed] rather than no reduction.

The current general market expectation is that the first interest rate cut will be implemented in June and July. Before the CPI is announced, the probability of an interest rate cut in June is greater than that in July. Therefore, it is normal for the [expectation] to be postponed and briefly fall for more than ten days.

If subsequent economic data gets better and better, the probability of an interest rate cut in July is greatly reduced, and [expectations] continue to be postponed, then April may continue to fall.

But currently, the market [expects] the probability of an interest rate cut in July is slightly greater than in June, so I think there will be a short adjustment for a month and a half, and then the rise will start in April.

Finally, I think this sentence should be kept in mind: the market rises and falls because of [expectations],

And I think this is the last chance to fill up the position.

#BTC

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