Let's briefly look at the market over the weekend. On Friday night, the speeches of Bob and Bernanke affected the market trend in the short term, and then formed the K-line of the upper and lower pins. Then, at the weekend, it was blocked after the first attempt to break through the downward trend line (blue line). This position was superimposed with two suppressions, one was the OB area before the vertical decline, and the other was the false breakthrough formed by the apex of the upper and lower pins, and then fell back. There was also a pullback test at the 1h level, but it did not stand back. Therefore, without the influence of the US stock market, it naturally fell back over the weekend. This morning, when closing the daily line, it falsely broke through the low point of the previous double-sided pin. This consolidation market is indeed a bit boring, and there is no change in the market structure that is expected to come out after the false break of the previous low. It is still consolidating in the range formed by the two yellow lines in the figure, and there is no trend. However, from the weekend's market, the price has been exploring downwards all the way, but the position has been increasing all the way, and CVD is also going down, so there are still most people in the market who think that this position cannot be maintained and will fall. Although I don't agree, I also choose to wait and see because it has not come out of the expected strength. When it breaks through 27200 and pulls back and stabilizes above this price, I will consider intervening and going long.
Another thing to note is that ES had a false breakout of the previous high last Friday, and is still doing a small level of consolidation below the previous high before the market opens. Pay attention to the trend after the market opens tonight. If it goes down smoothly after the market opens, the bitcoin price should also be dragged down. If ES stands above the previous high again, the expected rebound of the bitcoin price may come back. The same is true for the US dollar index. After breaking through the previous high, it also fell back to form a false breakout. This is good for equity assets. Bob was relatively dovish on Friday night, but the overall market atmosphere is still waiting for the debt ceiling to be resolved before participating. Although many people in the market are saying that the US debt default is more serious than expected, I still believe in empirical theory. The result of the US debt default is not what the two parties want to see in the end. It is just that they will continue to wrangle before the interests of all parties are completed. It is likely to pass when it is close to default, so let's wait and see. Since the market and the chart have not given a clear direction, the outcome is now gambling. Of course, you can do it, but put the position and leverage well, lower the stop loss and expectations, and participate. Let me express my opinion at the end. I am more bullish. respect
