A. Market View
1. Macro liquidity
Monetary liquidity improved. Due to the strong US economy, the market expects high interest rates to remain after June. Historically, the average time between a rate cut and no rate hike is 6 months. The US dollar index rebounded to a seven-week high, but did not change its short position. US stocks rose, and the overall first quarter report was better than expected. The US debt ceiling crisis is expected to be resolved, and the market believes that more money will be printed to repay the debt, which will eventually lead to capital inflows into riskier crypto assets.
2. Market conditions
The top 100 companies with the highest market capitalization:
The market fluctuated within a narrow range this week. Many altcoins have a rebound trend, especially since the current BTC price is relatively stable, and the Meme hotspot is gradually fading, so funds are gradually shifting to altcoins. The market hotspots mainly revolve around BTC ecology, liquidity pledge, and Hong Kong concepts.
LDO: The on-chain local currency market has increased the ETH staking yield, and ETH staking is in short supply. Node verification requires a month to wait. The current market share of LDO is 86%, RPL is 8%, and FXS is 2%. The new v2 version has been launched, and there is a proposal to upgrade the economic model to the staking mode.
LTC: The halving will take place on August 3. In the past, LTC would have a good rise about 50 days before the halving.
CFX: Mobile phone chips released in cooperation with China Telecom. On June 1, the market expects Hong Kong to release favorable encryption policies.
OP: Bedrock will be upgraded on June 6, and the gas fee will drop by 50%. WorldCoin is built on OP, which currently has more than 1.3 million registered users, so if WorldCoin can succeed, it may be good for OP.
3. BTC market
1) On-chain data
BTC trading volume hits record high. BTC's relative strength comes as investors begin to consider the halving narrative. Miner fees have soared to $18 million per day due to on-chain activity related to BRC-20. While trading activity is booming, the number of active addresses has dropped to a cycle low of 570,000 per day. 68% of BTC in circulation has not changed hands in a year, and the total circulation is gradually compressing.
Funds are fleeing the market at an accelerated pace. The market value of the four main stablecoins is still declining. The slow growth of funds is likely to lead to a continuous decline in purchasing power, making it difficult for the market to rise sharply.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV falls below the key level of 1, and the holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 0.54, entering the recovery stage.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: This week's rate is neutral, and market sentiment is stable. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, and there is more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate is -0.1-0%, and there is more short leverage, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures positions: Total positions remained unchanged this week, and major funds began to enter a wait-and-see mode.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.3. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator. Below 0.7, it is more panic, and above 2.0, it is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and its reference value is weakened.
3) Spot market
This week, BTC has not broken its upward trend this year. The market has seen a significant drop in volatility over the past two months and is in a temporary oscillation period, waiting for clarity of market information. When liquidity decreases, prices can fluctuate significantly in either direction, and large fluctuations may occur in the next few days or weeks.
B. Market Data:
1. Total locked-up amount of public chains
2. TVL Proportion of Each Public Chain
This week, the total TVL rose slightly by 0.33b, ending a few weeks of decline, with an increase of 0.7%. In recent weeks, the proportion of the ETH chain has been declining slightly, falling by 0.5% this week to 57.66%.
Judging from the data of the past seven days, among the core public chains of Ethereum's second-layer network, Arbitrum continued to rise by 0.75%, and other popular L2s have ended their three-week continuous downward trend. Among them, Optimism rose by 1.49% this week, Polygon rose by 2.03%, and only Avalanche continued to fall by 0.11%.
3. Locked Amount of Each Chain Protocol
1) ETH locked amount
2) BSC locked amount
3) Tron locked-up amount
4) Avalanche locked amount
5) Polygon locked-up amount
6) Arbitrum locked amount
7) Optimism locked amount
IV. ETH Gas fee history
The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.41, which is back to the gas level two weeks ago, and 71% lower than the same time last week. There have been short-term hot spots in the past two weeks, the market has continued to fluctuate, and gas fluctuates greatly. Uniswap's transaction fee is about $12.75, and Opensea's transaction fee is about $4.95. From the perspective of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies the top position.
5. Changes in NFT market data
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT market situation:
3) NFT trading market share:
4) NFT Buyer Analysis:
From the perspective of the total volume of the market, this week is still on a downward trend. In terms of NFT market share, Blur accounts for about 61.7%, down 7.7% from last week. Opensea accounts for about 23.1%, up ~1.1% from last week.
Analyzing the situation of NFT buyers, the number of buyers has been fluctuating in the bottom range recently and continued to decline this week, especially the returning buyer, which has fallen significantly and has fallen back to the lowest point of last month.
From the overview of the NFT market, the floor prices of some blue-chip NFTs generally rose this week, with Azuki up 3.09%, MAYC up 3.72%, and BAYC up 12%. Among them, Milady rose 2.87%.
VI. Latest project financing situation
