BTC has reached a high-risk range, when will it escape from the top? ? Deployment ideas in the bull market stage #BTC #sol #pepe #aevo

Recently, there are always friends asking, now that BTC has risen very high, should we clear out altcoins and avoid risks? I believe that most friends have this question, will BTC continue to rise, and when will it go away? That's right. Before answering this question, let's think about a question: Where is the end of this bull market? ?

When will the bull market end?

Let’s turn the question around, how long will this bull market last? ? ?

In the current market environment, BTC has not yet halved, the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, ETFs have just been approved, and major Nasdaq institutions have just entered the market. It is obvious that the currency circle is still in the early stages of the bull market, and BTC and altcoins have a long way to go. There is strong room for growth. Let’s ignore the intermediate process and predict the results directly.

The halving cycle of BTC will be at the end of April 2024. Looking back at the historical cycle, March after each halving is the eve of the start of the bull market. The halving in July 2016 started in October and ended in December 2017. The halving will occur in May 2020 and will start in August and end in November 2021. Then this round of bull market will most likely start in the second quarter of 2024 and end in the third quarter of 2025. The real bull market has not yet arrived, so why are you so anxious? Run away? ?

Should we escape from the top at this stage?

Now that we know when the bull market will end, let’s look at the current situation. BTC has been rising for 6 consecutive months. Every day is full of good news. All K-line indicators have exploded. The greed index has seriously exceeded the standard and has reached 88 today. Point, everything is reminding us that we are about to pull back, the cycle has peaked, we are about to run, we are about to run away

But do you really want to run? ?

Let’s talk about the answer first. Mainstream currencies can appropriately lighten their positions to avoid risks. Short-period altcoins can set up stop-profit and stop-loss controls to control risks. Long-period high-quality altcoins should be held tight. Why do you do this? Answers to you through 3 aspects

1. Market value analysis

The current total market value of the crypto market is about 2.5 trillion U.S. dollars, while the total market value of gold is 15 trillion U.S. dollars. Compared with the gold crypto market, there is still a lot of room for growth. We have done an analysis report on the current round of the crypto market. , it is predicted that the total market value of the crypto market in this round of bull market can reach 5 trillion US dollars. Through market share analysis, the proportion of BTC, ETH, USDT, and other (altcoins) can be roughly predicted.

Among them, BTC accounts for more than 50%, so the unit price can reach 125,000 US dollars/coin, ETH accounts for 20%, the unit price is 10,000 US dollars/coin, stablecoins account for about 5%, and the remaining 25% is allocated to altcoins.

2. Benefits and risks

Mainstream currency strategy

It is not difficult to calculate from the data that the rising space of mainstream assets (BTC, ETH) is already limited, about 1 times, and now escaping from the top can game 20%-30% of the falling space, and the returns are likely to be greater than the risks, so mainstream assets You can reduce your position appropriately to avoid current risks. If BTC does not correct, you will not lose too much profit ratio.

Altcoin Strategy

We just mentioned that 25% of the market value will be allocated to altcoins, which is 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars. A simple calculation shows that on average, each of the top 100 altcoin currencies can be allocated a market value of 12.5 billion U.S. dollars, and the ranking is The market value of the altcoins outside the top 50 is less than 2.5 billion US dollars, and there is at least 5 times more room for growth. Exchange qun + Wei: 2758624303 And this is just a rough calculation. The actual market value of the altcoins we hold is actually lower. It is expected to rise even more

Through data analysis, it is very foolish for altcoins to escape the top and avoid risks at this stage. It is obviously not cost-effective to give up more than 500% of the profits in order to game the 30%-50% correction. Therefore, our current altcoin strategy is Don’t escape from the top, stick to holding

3. Banker’s thinking

This year’s bull market is different from previous years. After the adoption of ETF, the world’s top institutions have poured in. The influx of large amounts of funds has prompted BTC to rise rapidly, and the average holding price of major institutions has also continued to increase.

Through reverse thinking, we can know that the profits of the bankers are not much at present. The current callback is just to pick up retail investors. When you think there is a callback, it is often not the time for the real callback. Gouzhuang knows the idea of ​​​​leeks very well, so we have to Learn to think in the opposite direction. The more you think there is going to be a correction, the more market makers will continue to push up, causing more FOMO. They will continue to pull up and then release bad news, hit the market at a high level, and then release bad news to make retail investors feel uncomfortable. Panic forces retail investors to hand over their cheap chips at low prices and start a new round of harvesting

In fact, when you have a clear idea, the easiest way is not to take the move. Many people can always pretend to be dead in the bear market, but in the bull market, they cannot hold the chips in their hands and are always afraid of profit taking and missing out. Good opportunity

Summarize

There is no need to be too conservative during the bull market stage. The order needs to be larger, with clear goals, and not to be affected by market sentiment.

It doesn’t matter whether you can escape from the top or not. What’s important is how serious the cost of clearing positions and escaping from the top is at this stage. If you succeed in escaping from the top, you will feel good for a while. If you fail to escape from the top, you will regret it for the rest of your life if you miss the bull market.

Opportunities don’t come around all the time, and the cost of missing them is too high, so don’t care about the petty profits of the moment.

Remember, it will be painful for a while to be trapped in the callback, but it will be fun to hold the currency for Mad Cow for a lifetime.