US tech stocks are under pressure, interest rate cuts may become a test. Bitcoin hits a new high again, and the Cancun upgrade is successfully implemented!
Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at around 72,800. Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high today and has fallen slightly. Short positions in options and futures around 73,000 have been basically liquidated, and Bitcoin has once again started to fluctuate and hit a new all-time high.
Ethereum's Cancun upgrade was successfully implemented, and the Ethereum network ushered in a low GAS era. After the successful upgrade, Ethereum fell slightly and the trend was weak. Whether there will be a correction afterwards remains to be seen.
The slight decline in U.S. technology stocks has led to a decline in U.S. stocks. Technology stocks will face greater performance pressure now and in the second half of this year. Once interest rates begin to cut, the pressure will be even greater and the technology bubble will be tested.
MicroStrategy's success in increasing its Bitcoin holdings directly shattered the short-selling force worth US$3.3 billion. After this round of interest rate cuts, the US stock market may see a Bitcoin financial bubble model.
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Today, Bitcoin broke through 70,000 and stabilized near 72,000, which has refreshed the historical high. There is no pressure above Bitcoin, and there is only a continuous refresh of historical heights. However, it should be noted that the current over-the-counter futures, options, and contract liquidation volume near 73,000 has reached 2.6 billion US dollars. In particular, option and futures traders will inevitably use spot to suppress prices. Of course, some people do hedging and it doesn’t matter, but there must be some people who need to make a long-short game again, so at present, around 73,000, pay attention to the long-short game in the early morning.
According to my expectation, the rest period of Bitcoin's rise this time is around 73,000-75,000, but it obviously needs to break through a pressure. And this breakthrough is stable, many people are worried about another callback, especially contract traders, who are very worried about unexpected callbacks, or the so-called 312, so let's pay attention to the support level below.
The first support, 71,500, is a short-term support with a weak support strength. Support is provided by the upper line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is running at the upper line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band. This support can be used as a reference for short-term declines. Contract traders should pay attention.
The second support is the 69,000-70,000 range, which is a short-term support with slightly stronger support strength. It is supported by the 4-hour MA7 moving average and the middle line of the Bollinger Band. In the short-term price fluctuation, pay attention to the situation of this support. If it falls below, Bitcoin may lose its position above 70,000 in the short term. Contract traders should also pay attention.
The third support, 67,000, is a short-term support with strong support strength. This support is provided by the daily MA7 moving average and the weekly Bollinger Band upper line. It is the strongest of the three supports. However, it is also a short-term support.
Because Bitcoin started to rise again today and rose to around 72,000 in a short period of time, the technical side has not been repaired and adjusted yet, and many technical supports have not been effectively formed. Once there is a lot of selling pressure in the market, leading to a decline, the first and second short-term supports may be relatively fragile, and the third support strength will be a little higher. Of course, this is for short-term volatile contract transactions.
For spot trading, there is no obvious risk at present. You can refer to the 60,000 level. After the shocks during this period, it has stabilized above 60,000. At present, the monthly Bollinger Band has reached the upper level of 60,000 and has begun to overlap with the daily technical support. This position will form a strong support in the short term. Spot traders can pay attention to this position. If this position is not broken, there is no need to consider hedging. Especially for the needle-piercing market, if it is not effectively broken, there is basically no need to panic.
Market dynamics and funding changes:
The current total market value is 2.836 trillion, an increase of 79 billion compared to yesterday.
The market value of Bitcoin is 142.46 billion, an increase of 56.6 billion compared to yesterday.
Ethereum's market value is 487 billion, an increase of 16.5 billion compared to yesterday.
The total market value increased by 79 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 73.1 billion, and the rest was the market value increase of 5.9 billion of the altcoins
Bitcoin accounts for 49.9% of the market, an increase of 30 basis points compared to yesterday's data, and Ethereum accounts for 17.1%, which is unchanged from yesterday.
In terms of trading volume:
The total transaction volume was 181 billion, an increase of 57.3 billion compared to yesterday.
Bitcoin 58.2 billion, an increase of 28.2 billion compared to yesterday.
Ethereum is 29.96 billion, an increase of 14.79 billion compared to yesterday.
The total transaction volume of Shanzhai is 92.84 billion, an increase of 14.31 billion compared with yesterday.
Funding:
The total on-site funds were 147 billion, unchanged from yesterday, accounting for 5.19%, a decrease of 15 basis points from yesterday.
USDT: Market value of 102.018 billion, an increase of about 18 million compared to yesterday; trading volume of 106.4 billion, an increase of 45%.
USDC: Market value of 30.2 billion, an increase of 60 million compared to yesterday, and trading volume of 10.8 billion, an increase of 61.97%
From the overall market dynamics, Bitcoin is still the protagonist today, accounting for the largest share of the market increase. Although Ethereum also rose, the overall increase was not obvious. Looking at the market share, Bitcoin's share increased, while Ethereum's share did not change. Today's Ethereum rise can only be seen as driven by Bitcoin.
In terms of trading volume, Bitcoin rose today, and the trading volume accounted for a large proportion, which indeed generated a large amount of turnover. Turnover is a good thing, and the continuous change of chips is conducive to the stabilization and rise of prices in the later period. On the other hand, the market value of Ethereum did not increase by a large proportion, but the increase in transactions was also not low. Although Ethereum rose today, the increase in trading volume was relatively high, indicating that the long-short game sentiment of Ethereum is still strong, and Ethereum is still weak.
At the same time, the same is true for the copycat market. Today, the market value of copycats increased by the same amount as yesterday, but the trading volume increased significantly year-on-year. This data proves that the copycat market is also currently in a weak period.
In terms of funds, the funds retained in the market remain unchanged, while the funds flowing into the market have greatly decreased. Today, the funds in the US and Asian markets have increased by only about 78 million. In the Asian market, because it is close to 312, although everyone knows that history is unlikely to repeat itself, there is still a certain shadow in the mind, so the capital inflow has decreased significantly. The US funds have also decreased inflows, but compared with the Asian funds, the inflows are relatively large.
However, according to the rise of Bitcoin today, the funds in the market have not decreased. Basically, funds were drawn from other altcoins and entered Bitcoin. The rise of Bitcoin has temporarily formed a short-term blood-sucking state.
Macroeconomics and news:
Because the risk market has a poor expectation for tomorrow's inflation, the US stock market opened slightly lower today. However, in my opinion, the current inflation CPI data is 3.1% before and expected to be 3.1%. According to the recent data playing method of the United States, tomorrow may continue to maintain the 3.1% data. I directly expected last week's non-agricultural data to be higher than expected and lower than the previous value. Because the recent data playing method of the United States is too obvious.
However, as the risk market, especially the US stock market, turns its attention to inflation data, coupled with the decline in Nvidia's stock price last week, Wall Street has begun to reduce its attention to the bubble risk of US technology stocks. If this continues, the US stock market will cool down appropriately, and the bubble risk will indeed be reduced. Of course, although I have always felt that the US stock market is risky, it will not fall so easily.
The reason is simple. It is impossible for the United States to cool down the largest dollar reservoir that it has prepared with great difficulty for interest rate cuts so easily before cutting interest rates.
So again, in the future, US stocks, which are sensitive to US data, may continue to fluctuate and consolidate, fall due to economic stimulus, and then rebound due to positive technology, and continue to maintain a strong high position.
In terms of crypto market news, the only thing worth noting today is that MicroStrategy purchased another 12,000 bitcoins for $821.7 million, with an average price of $68,457. This is the second large-scale purchase of bitcoins by the company in the past four years. Of course, this is not without warning.
Last week I said that MicroStrategy was going to sell $800 million of convertible notes in a private placement on the 8th of this month. The purchase of this Bitcoin was completed from February 26th to March 10th. MicroStrategy has submitted relevant documents to the US SEC. The company currently holds 20,500 Bitcoins.
The focus of this news is that MicroStrategy submitted relevant materials to the SEC for purchasing Bitcoin, but the SEC did not issue any statement, which is tacit approval.
This is what I want to say. MicroStrategy previously converted the company's assets into digital currency by purchasing Bitcoin. Since the surge in Bitcoin last year, the company has been profitable and its stock price has been stimulated to rise. Under this, it continues to issue additional stocks and convertible notes to increase its purchase of Bitcoin, which forms a cycle.
Before, I was worried whether this kind of operation would be classified as high-risk by the SEC and be stopped. At present, it seems that the SEC has not stopped it. Then can we understand that many American companies may follow MicroStrategy's example and improve the company's financial profitability by purchasing Bitcoin? If this is true, then in addition to the Bitcoin ETF being passed and causing large retail investors to buy Bitcoin through ETF institutions, traditional companies will also buy Bitcoin one after another, and the price of Bitcoin may be pushed to an unexpected price.
Of course, there are disadvantages. Once the amount of bitcoins in circulation in the market decreases, liquidity deteriorates, and trading depth deteriorates, any buying and selling in this case may cause large short-term fluctuations in the market.
I can’t imagine how the crypto market will be distorted if this idea is really developed. In fact, for many retail investors, making money still mainly depends on copycats.
Finally, thank you all for following Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.
