Written by: CapitalismLab Binance LaunchPad has received worrying reviews recently, but the voice of “No matter how poor you are, you can’t afford education” still fully reflects the warmth and beauty that LaunchPad brings to the crypto community. We collected the historical data of Launchpad from 2021 to the present, used the data to speak, compared with history to evaluate the current income level of Launchpad, explored the reasons for the "boring" reputation, and calculated the return rate of long-term holding of BNB against the ETH staking return. , comprehensively analyze the issue of "BNB's earnings". Indicator explanation: First-day increase: The price at the first UTC+0:00 after listing is compared to IDO. The largest increase in history: The highest price in history is compared to IDO. BNB return rate on the first day: 1BNB is new and sold on the first day. The amount of BNB that can be obtained from the currency exchange. The maximum return rate of BNB in ​​history: 1 BNB is new and sold at the highest price in history. The amount of BNB that can be obtained is evaluated by taking the median of all projects. The first-day increase is 12.6 times, and the historical maximum increase is 25.7 times. BNB's first-day return was 0.015, and BNB's historical maximum return was 0.031. As for the three tokens that have been launched since HOOK, all indicators are at the mid-to-upper level. The median first-day increase is 24.4 times, which is 1.9 times the historical median. The maximum historical increase is 1.4 times the historical median. The first-day return of BNB standard is 1.5 times, and the maximum historical return of BNB is 1.3 times. In other words, these projects in the bear market are actually more profitable than most projects in the bull market. The current policy is also more friendly to arbitrage users. Compared with the previous uneven returns, the BNB-based returns of the past three projects are all around 2%. If the terms of Launchpad remain similar to these in the future, then through For users who buy short spot contracts and make new contracts, as well as those who borrow BNB from Venus to make new contracts, they basically have a relatively stable expectation. Why does it feel boring? Here comes the question, why do I always feel less powerful than before? The reason is mostly due to the lack of big hot spots. In 21/22, there will be products like SFP/GMT with a maximum return of hundreds of times. If you get it, one of them is worth ten. There was about a year between the last round of SFP and GMT, and after another year of GMT, there has been no project that has achieved the same level of increase.It is normal for a phenomenal project to give people a stronger impression than three mid-level projects. When you look at the picture below, your first reaction is probably to look for GMT. What does the so-called BNB-based historical maximum return rate of GMT, 0.46, mean? That is, if you use 1BNB to buy the new GMT, you can sell 0.46 BNB at the top, and SFP can even use 1 BNB to buy 1.56 BNB! No wonder everyone is impressed. In comparison, the current maximum return of 0.0X is somewhat boring. However, what is more interesting is that the first-day increase of SFP/GMT is relatively average, only 12 times, which is half of Hook/EDU. The three new projects have not been online for a long time. In the current bear market, ponzi and other models are difficult to become popular, so there is no need to have too high expectations for the time being. BNB long-term holding income The annualized return of BNB LaunchPad can actually be compared with the ETH staking return. In the past two and a half years since 21, if the tokens are sold on the first day, the total return rate of BNB is 36%, and the annualized rate is 14%, which seems to be slightly higher than the income of ETH Staking in the same period. However, BNB also has the income of Launchpool. If we add the income from mining, withdrawal and sale of Launchpool, the total return rate of BNB is 52%, and the annualized rate is 21%, which is almost more than twice the income of ETH Staking in the same period. The total return of the project in the past year since the bear market is about 9.5%, and the ETH Staking APR that benefits from MEV income after Merge is about 6%. In other words, in the bear market, the return rate of BNB new issuance still maintains more than 50% of the income of ETH Staking. If the bull market comes, ETH Staking income is expected to benefit from MEV income, and BNB Launchpad is expected to usher in a double-click in quantity and increase. However, ETH's current pledge rate is low, and compared with other L1s, there is still 2-3 times of room for growth. The returns may be diluted due to more pledges. The amount of new launches on Launchpad currently seems to be relatively stable at around 10M for both bull and bear markets. Coupled with the temptation of "historical maximum return", BNB is relatively more flexible. Of course, BNB/ETH are currently destroying deflation, and BNB's destruction speed is significantly faster, but the benefits of destruction will be directly reflected in the coin price. The long-term trend of BNB/ETH in history is upward. Since 21, BNB/ETH has basically been in a state of sideways fluctuations, so it is reasonable to directly compare the pledge income with the Staking income. Summary: Since the bear market, the comprehensive return rate of Launchpad’s three projects has been in the upper-middle range of history, with various indicators approximately 1.3-1.9 times the historical median, and the current first-day return rate of BNB is stable at around 2%, which is suitable for arbitrage. There has been no SFP/GMT etc. for a year, and it is possible to achieve a phenomenal return of up to 1.5 BNB for one BNB. The negative market feedback may come from this. Comparing ETH Staking, the current long-term return of BNB is about 9.5%, which is 1.5 times that of ETH. In the past bull market, the return of BNB was about more than twice that of ETH, and it is expected to be more in the future bull market. Has upward elasticity. However, you cannot just press the calculator. In the next round of bull market, the Usecase of ETH/BNB may be the key factor in determining returns. Currently, ETH L2 is developing well, and whether BNB Chain can continue to make efforts is also a point that requires special attention.