After experiencing repeated fluctuations at $62,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) once again showed strong upward momentum this morning (4th). At around 8:45 in the morning, the highest price hit $64,268 and then consolidated slightly. At around 5:30 p.m., the price exceeded $65,500, once again setting a new high this year.
At the moment when Bitcoin once again exceeded $64,000, according to data from CoinGlass, the liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market has exceeded $330 million in the past 24 hours, and more than 131,000 people have been liquidated.
Since the beginning of 2024, the price of Bitcoin has soared. In just two months, it rose 52.4% from US$42,000 to a high of US$64,000. It is worth mentioning that in February alone, Bitcoin rose by more than 4%. As a result of such a surprising rally, analysts have mixed views on where to go next.
Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, conducted a detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s price return and made a compelling prediction: In this bull market, Bitcoin’s price return is expected to grow from current levels to 260%.
After an in-depth study of the Williams Percent Range indicator, Franzen pinpointed a rare bull signal, the fourth time ever that such a signal has occurred. He said: “Bitcoin just completed its highest monthly close since October 21, and the 36-month Williams percentage range closed above overbought levels for the fourth time in history. The bullish situation for Bitcoin is even more obvious..."
It is reported that this signal appeared in 2013, 2016 and 2020, marking the early stages of the Bitcoin bull market. Although returns per cycle have declined, from 1,900% in 2013 to 260% in 2020, Franzen believes that even compared to the most recent bull run, Bitcoin prices are on track to reach $180,000.
Another potential catalyst is the upcoming fourth Bitcoin halving, which is less than 50 days away. As the halving approaches, bullish sentiment is running high, believing that Bitcoin will soon surpass the all-time high of nearly $69,000 hit in November 2021.
At the same time, the Bitcoin holdings data of the four major ETFs show strong confidence in the market. In the eighth week since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, BlackRock’s IBIT increased its holdings by 34,270 BTC; Fidelity’s FBTC increased its holdings by 12,243 BTC; ARK21Shares’ ARKB increased its holdings by 3,922 BTC; Bitwise’s BITB increased its holdings 2,192 BTC were purchased, which further enhanced the market’s optimism about the future of Bitcoin.
Some experts note that rising Bitcoin prices could leave smaller miners with less supply even in April as more people buy Bitcoin through new spot Bitcoin ETFs, attracting new investors. can still maintain profitability.
However, among spot ETFs, GrayScale, as the largest source of reductions, has a negative attitude towards the market outlook. In a recent report, analysts at Grayscale mentioned that macroeconomic factors are crucial to the assessment of the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as investments.
They noted that continued high inflation could cause Federal Reserve officials to delay plans to cut interest rates, which could have a negative impact on cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Since the crypto market is very sensitive to interest rate changes and macroeconomic sentiment, such a decision could suppress the valuation of crypto assets such as Bitcoin.
JPMorgan strategists said that historically, Bitcoin's price has typically risen after halvings because the so-called miner production costs serve as a floor for the asset's price. Currently, the average production cost of Bitcoin is approximately US$26,500, which is expected to "mechanically double" to US$53,000 after the halving.
However, as the mining difficulty increased, small miners were forced out of operations and the mining difficulty may be 20% lower than originally estimated, thus reducing production costs. Strategists noted that investors could see Bitcoin prices fall to $42,000 after April as Bitcoin's lower bound support diminishes.
Anonymous analyst PlanB, famous for proposing the S2F model, recently posted a cyclical chart of Bitcoin on social media, indicating that the Bitcoin accumulation phase is over and the market will enter an orderly and slow growth phase, and there will no longer be ease. The buying opportunity indicates that the bull market has begun.
If we look back at history, we will find that there are about 10 months of crazy FOMO periods and extreme price surges, which are also accompanied by multiple declines of more than 30%. However, he also reminded investors to be careful and avoid using excessive leverage.
According to data from Coingecko, the cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased significantly since the lows in July 2022. Data as of March 2 show that the cryptocurrency market value has exceeded US$2.4 trillion, with only about 22% growth left from the historical high in November 2021. People are beginning to pay attention to whether it can break through new highs in 2024, which will continue to be the focus of attention.
To sum up, Bitcoin’s breakthrough of the $64,200 price mark and the bullish signal revealed by rare indicators have aroused market attention and controversy. Despite market uncertainty and disagreement, Bitcoin, one of the leading cryptocurrencies, has shown tremendous growth potential over the past few years. With the fourth Bitcoin halving approaching and the participation of institutional investors increasing, Bitcoin’s future remains promising.
