在距离比特币减半还剩50天的今日，伴随着主力加大马力进场，比特币已经突破6万美元的大关，距离历史最高价格还剩8000美元的空间，市场的狂热程度呈指数级上升，毫无疑问，改变命运的大牛市已经缓缓拉开了帷幕，仅显露的冰山一角就足以让我们疯狂。
Among such violent bulls, in addition to mainstream currencies, the GameFi sector will also usher in an unimaginable explosion. This is a point of view that I have been repeatedly emphasizing since last year, and it is also the consensus of the current market. In a previous article, I gave you an analysis of the skyrocketing logic and investment advice of Beam, a blockchain game project. As a blockchain game portal platform, Beam has also built a chain game-specific L2 network based on Ethereum to provide $BEAM tokens. Coin has brought a lot of empowerment, so today we will conduct an overall investment analysis on the subdivision of game public chain in the chain game track to see whether the current game public chain sector is worthy of our layout.
We use ImmutableX, the leading project in this field, Ronin, which is currently very popular, and Oasys from the Japanese game manufacturer, as research benchmarks to have an overview of the future potential of the entire blockchain game public chain sector.
ImmutableX（$IMX）预期涨幅分析
The original design intention of ImmutableX was actually to provide a faster and lower-cost environment for NFT transactions. However, with the sluggishness of the NFT market, ImmutableX gradually turned to the positioning of a game public chain. Like Beam, ImmutableX's blockchain is based on Ethereum Layer 2 built on ZK-Rollup. Currently, there are more than 150 games and over one million users in its ecosystem, including the famous sandbox game Illuvium.
When we want to judge the potential of a token, its current price and market value are very important data. Perhaps everyone’s recent attention has been taken away by the big pie and the AI track, and they have not paid attention to the game public chain sector. What an exaggerated rise in token prices. Since last October, the price of ImmutableX’s token $IMX has climbed from 0.52u to 3.4u, an increase of more than 5.5 times. After hearing this data, you may have already broken your thighs, but if you are allowed to enter the market now, How many people dare to rush in and chase the high?
The highest price of $IMX in the last bull market was 8u. According to normal thinking, with its prosperous ecology, $IMX will definitely have no problem returning to a record high in this bull market. In other words, there is still a long way to go from the current price of 3.4u. At least 2-3 times the room for growth.
However, from the perspective of market value, as the $IMX token has been gradually unlocked in the past two years, its market value has far exceeded the US$1.75 billion in the last bull market. The current market value has reached US$4.65 billion, which has also become the token’s The largest market capitalization in history. Therefore, when we estimate the future potential of $IMX, its historical price has no reference value. We can only predict the explosive strength of the chain game public chain sector in the bull market.
To predict the explosive potential of chain game public chains in this bull market, we can benchmark against the DeFi Summer led by Ethereum. The highest market value of Ethereum in the 2017 bull market was US$123.5 billion. By the bull market of 2021, Ethereum's market value reached a high of US$558.9 billion. The difference between the peak market values of the two bull markets was about 5 times. During this period, Ethereum The number of coins increased from 97 million to 118 million, a total increase of 21%.
So if the chain game track can start GameFi Summer in this year’s bull market, we will calculate the market value increase of the chain game public chain sector at 5-6 times. By then, the market value of $IMX will reach between 20 billion and 28 billion. Considering $IMX will also unlock 330 million tokens before the end of 2024, which means that the token circulation will increase by 23%, which is similar to the growth rate of Ethereum. Therefore, the price increase of $IMX is expected to be consistent with the market capitalization, which is also 5-6 times, the price of $IMX tokens will reach 17-20u. This is still under the condition that ImmutableX can secure its leading position. If ImmutableX's competitiveness decreases during this period, the increase may not be as expected.
Then let’s take a look at Ronin.
Ronin ($RON) expected growth analysis
Ronin is a side chain based on Ethereum. It was built by the original team of Axie Infinity, a star chain gaming project in the last bull market. It is specially designed for game development. Several high-quality projects have emerged in the ecosystem, including the one recently launched on Binance. It goes without saying that the pixel style games Pixels and Axie are also famous. The star effect still exists and there are still thousands of daily active users. Ronin is extremely popular now after experiencing the wealth effect of the token being listed on Binance and Pixels, with nearly 80 daily active users. Wan, there seems to be a momentum to compete for the top spot in the game public chain.
The token $RON has increased more than 6 times since October last year. The current price has reached around 3u, and its historical highest price is 3.5u, which is infinitely close to the previous high. Breaking through the previous high has become a certainty. From the perspective of market value, the market value of $RON has been reaching new highs since November last year. The current market value has reached 820 million US dollars, ranking fifth in the market value of the game public chain sector, but obviously the potential of $RON does not stop there. .
You may not know that Pixels was actually first developed and operated on the Polygon chain, but its user data has never been ideal. Then in October 2023, Pixels announced that it would migrate the project to Ronin. In just one month after migrating to Ronin, the monthly active users of Pixels increased from 159,000 to 203,000, and the number of Twitter followers also increased to over 120,000 in just a few days. It can be said that the reason why Pixels has achieved A large part of the current achievements can be attributed to Ronin. Choice is greater than hard work, which is perfectly reflected here. Of course, the success of Pixels will also feed back to Ronin. I believe that more and more project parties will choose to invest in the Ronin chain in the future. For game development on Ronin, many chain game projects will be migrated from other chains to Ronin.
Whether it is the project fundamentals or the current market popularity, Ronin is undoubtedly far better than its big brother Gala. Gala’s current market value is US$1.12 billion, which is 1.36 times that of $RON. Then Ronin’s currency price needs to reach 4u. In order for the market value to be equal to Gala, that is, the market value of $RON still has room for at least 36% increase, then we need to add the expectations of a bull market.
The same estimation model is based on $IMX. Assume that the market value of $RON increases at the same rate as Ethereum’s Defi Summer in the bull market, that is, 5-6 times. Based on the market value of $1.12 billion, which is the same as Gala, then the market value of $RON in the bull market It will reach between 5.5 and 6.5 billion. Based on the current price of $RON 3u, it is a price increase of between 5.7 and 7 times. At the same time, we also need to consider the unlocking of $RON tokens. By the end of this year, the circulation of $RON will reach 600 million coins, which is doubled compared to the current circulation of 300 million coins. Therefore, the estimated increase in the price of $RON must also be reduced by half, that is, between 2-3.5 times. Of course, because Ronin’s current ecological influence is gradually increasing, there is a high probability that the increase in $RON will be higher than my current estimate. But even in the most FOMO stage of the bull market, I think the increase in $RON will not be More than 6 times.
Oasys ($OAS) expected growth analysis
Oasys is an Ethereum side chain designed specifically for games. Its current market value is only ranked 257. You may not have paid attention to this project, but its background is still huge. Oasys is a project jointly launched by Japanese game manufacturers Bandai Namco and Sega. The project team includes the CEO of Bandai Namco Research Institute, the COO of Sega, the co-founder of YGG Guild, the founder of PlatStation and other outstanding people. Unlike other game public chains that focus on solving GAS and improving TPS, Oasys also provides game projects within the ecosystem with the option to develop their own ecosystem through the construction of a hub and verse double-layer network, bringing great benefits to the development of the project. More narrative space. The Oasys chain ensures security by 27 centralized nodes. These 27 verification nodes are controlled by institutions and companies, including Sega, Ubisoft, Softbank and other companies.
Currently, 10 Verse networks have been established in the Oasys ecosystem, with more than 50 games. Among them, a game with phenomenal potential has appeared, and that is Champion Tactics. Champion Tactics is the first blockchain game officially launched by the gaming giant Ubisoft. With so many blockchain game projects announcing cooperation with Ubisoft, Ubisoft still chooses Oasys as its base. It can also be seen that Ubisoft is committed to Oasys takes it seriously.
The current Oasys token price is 0.12u, which has increased more than twice since October last year. In mid-February, it reached a new high of $269 million in market value. So is this market value overvalued? We can still judge by benchmarking. Currently, Oasys is only moderately popular, with about 100,000 daily active addresses. This is also due to the recently launched betting project OasChoice. Before that, Oasys had less than 20,000 daily active users, and only Ronin’s One forty. By analogy with public chains, if your TVL is only one-fortieth of others, but the market value is more than one-quarter, is this obviously overvalued? This is true for public chains that value TVL, and this is true for game platforms that value active users. Even based on the market value of OAS at the time when the OasChoice game was not included, it was equivalent to one-eighth of the market value of ron, which is still overvalued.
Moreover, $OAS will unlock 158 million tokens every month, and the current total token circulation is close to 2 billion. This means that by the end of this year, $OAS will unlock more than 1.4 billion tokens. The circulation volume will increase by 70% based on the current circulation volume. Even if it is calculated based on the 5-6 times of the market increase, unless Oasys can have a phenomenal game in the future and a large number of users can pour in, otherwise $OAS tokens will The room for increase is only 4.5-5.5 times. If you squeeze out the current overvalued water, it may only increase 2-3 times.
In summary, we can see from the analysis of the growth expectations of the above three public chain game projects that if you enter the chain game public chain sector at the current price, the overall room for growth is limited. If you want to invest, I have two suggestions:
1、等回调，虽然下一轮回调不知何时会到来，但可以肯定的是山寨币的回调幅度将远超大饼二饼，因为市场大部分的资金已经被比特以太吸走，留存在山寨币里的资金体量并不大，一旦回调来临，山寨币将集体面临买盘不足的情况。
2、参与公链生态内的打新，投资链游最简单的办法是买币，但是最赚钱的办法肯定是参与新项目打新，不管是之前的Bigtime日赚5万u，还是现在的Seraph 40倍收益、Pixels零撸单号收益1000u+，种种事迹都在告诉我们，链游打新的暴利远超想象，在DeFi Summer中最赚钱的那批人，是在链上做各种DeFi操作的人，而非买币的投资人。
