What is non-agricultural data? Here's how to look at tonight's non-agricultural data (non-agricultural science)

灯塔说 · 2023-05-05T09:59:36.000Z

Data understanding: What is non-agricultural work? Non-agriculture refers to statistics on job changes other than agriculture, which mainly reflects the development and growth of manufacturing and service industries. The higher the number, the higher the production demand of enterprises and the strong economy, which is good for the U.S. dollar and bad for the United States. Related data: PMI Manufacturing Service Industry Final Value, ADP employment population, small non-agricultural sector, JOLTs job vacancies, etc. What is unemployment rate? As the name suggests, it is the ratio of unemployment to working population. It is an indicator that reflects the unemployment situation. It is used to judge the impact of supply and demand in the labor market and the economic cycle. It is also an important indicator that reflects the economy. An increase in the unemployment rate represents weakening demand and consumption, which is negative for the economy. The U.S. dollar is bullish, related data: number of initial jobless claims, employment situation

Data understanding:
What is non-agricultural? Non-agricultural refers to the statistics of job changes outside of agriculture, mainly reflecting the development and growth of manufacturing and service industries. The higher the data, the higher the demand for enterprise production, the stronger the economy, which is good for the US dollar and bad for non-US dollars. Related data: PMI manufacturing and service industry final value, ADP employment population small non-agricultural, JOLTs job vacancies, etc.
What is the unemployment rate? As the name suggests, it is the ratio of the unemployed to the working population. It is an indicator of unemployment and is used to judge the impact of labor market supply and demand and economic cycle. It is also an important indicator of the economy. A rise in unemployment rate means weaker demand and consumption, which is unfavorable to the economy, negative for the US dollar and positive for non-US dollars. Related data: Number of initial unemployment claims, employment status
Tonight's non-agricultural data market expectations
Employment: Previous value: +236,000, expected: +180,000, announced value:?
Unemployment rate: Previous value: 3.5%, expected: 3.6%, announced value:?
20 investment banks expect the US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls to be released at 20:30 tonight.
TD Securities: +150,000; ABN AMRO: +150,000; BNP Paribas: +160,000; ING: +175,000;
UBS: +175,000; Standard Chartered: +175,000; Capital Economics: +180,000; Morgan Stanley: +183,000;
JPMorgan Chase: +185,000; HSBC Holdings: +185,000; Credit Suisse: +190,000; Wells Fargo: 195,000;
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +200,000; DBS Bank: +200,000; Mizuho Securities: +200,000; Moody's Analytics: +200,000;
Citigroup: +215,000; Goldman Sachs: +225,000; Commerzbank: +240,000; Nomura Securities: +265,000.
A total of 20 institutions and banks have conducted statistics, 6 of which expect to be lower than 180,000, and the rest are higher than 180,000, of which two are higher than the previous value of 236,000, which is positive for the US dollar and negative for non-US dollars.
The impact of non-agricultural data on market fluctuations in the past year
Lighthouse View: Tonight's data is likely to be between 180,000 and 236,000. A figure below 180,000 will be a big positive and will lead to a big rebound.
Judging from the final value of PMI manufacturing and service industry, ADP employment population, small non-agricultural, and JOLTs job vacancies, the probability of exceeding 180,000 is relatively high.
Therefore, tonight's data is greater than 180,000, which is good for the US dollar, and the probability of bad news for non-US dollars is relatively high. A small negative market will stimulate a correction, but before breaking 27,500, it is still mainly low and long. At present, the overall trend is convergent adjustment, and both long and short have opportunities. It depends on whether the non-agricultural data breaks the adjustment range.
In summary, this is only my personal opinion.