Yesterday, BTC market did not change much, with a small increase. The US stock market weakened after a small fluctuation. The market did not give a more dovish expectation on interest rate hikes. Most companies' financial reports were lower than expected, especially chip stocks, which were affected by production capacity and our own low-end chips were in production. We are not optimistic about the long-term outlook.

Regarding US stock holdings, I personally hold short calls of AMSL and SOXL. I am not optimistic about a bigger rebound in chip stocks in the short term (the previous period was entirely supported by the bubble of AI, and will slowly return to rationality later. But it is not suitable to be bearish on Nvidia at the moment)

The BTC market is still stable, with a slight increase after the market. The trading volume has not improved, and the volatility has not increased. After all, this market does not have financial report problems, and there will not be a chain reaction of individual stock failures triggering the market failure.

In addition, in my opinion, ETH will not be able to outperform BTC in the short term. The output of POS will continue to be a selling pressure in the market, and NFT is collapsing across the board. There is no new narrative.

Recently, many netizens left messages asking me about the bankruptcy of First Republic Bank. I will summarize it here.

Probably JPMorgan Chase acquired First Republic after it went bankrupt, but since it had already gone bankrupt, the acquisition was very cost-effective. How cost-effective was it?

They need assets, deposits, and loans, and their equity and debt are reduced to zero. (Shareholders are all dumbfounded. Now you know why I don’t recommend you buy bank stocks. The stocks of highly leveraged companies are gone in an instant.)

The process is completely legal, given by the FDIC

Depositors will no longer cause trouble, and lenders will have to continue repaying their loans.

According to a special report by Signalplus’s Weekend Daily, this rescue is different from the past. In the past, it was the state that took action, but now it is the enterprises that take action to directly purchase bankrupt enterprises, but they have to pay to make up for the losses to the industry insurance fund caused by this bankruptcy, protect depositors, and kill all shareholders... According to a rough estimate, JPM’s gains from the entire merger and acquisition this time saved billions of dollars compared to normal mergers and acquisitions. Of course, in fact, these billions of dollars were originally the stock value of shareholders. Compared with the debt of unfinished buildings, equity in the capital market is often a joke~~

FRC dropped directly from $170 to 0.3 (if someone sells PUT..)

By the way, the recent earnings report of the US SP500 exceeded expectations, but this does not mean that the economy is better. It is likely that everyone's expectations were relatively pessimistic last year. If I really have to choose a direction here, I will still choose to short US stocks, or short call instead of buying spot longs.