Bitcoin is struggling to hold above the $28,000 region after the correction, however analysts are still predicting a sharper drop to come, as the market looks ahead to an interest rate decision from the Fed.

Research shows #Bitcoin is likely to fall below $25,000 to eliminate a large number of recent speculators.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the influence of “short-term holders” (STH) on price action #BTC.

BTC/USD has struggled to overcome the $30,000 resistance level in recent weeks and multiple fakeouts have frustrated Bitcoin bulls.

In its latest investigation into on-chain activity, Glassnode revealed that new market entrants may be responsible for speculative behavior, including profit-taking in 2023.

The metrics are showing a decline, including STH-MVRV, reflecting the relationship with STH, who have been hoarding Bitcoin for the past 155 days.

“The weekly average of this indicator identifies the possibility of a short-term correction, typically seen when STH-MVRV is above 1.2, signaling an unrealized gain of 20%. Macro peaks tend to see even higher values, typically above 1.4”.

At its most recent local peak in mid-March, STH-MVRV hit 1.37, very close to “macro top” territory and the highest point since October 2021, just before BTC/USD hit ATH level at $69,000.

However, as of May 2, STH-MVRV has been measuring around 1.15 and is falling towards its 1.0 equilibrium point, where the spot price matches the cost basis.

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