Yesterday (20 FEB), the market began to discuss whether the Fed needs to restart the interest rate hike. Citigroup said that investors should have more hedging measures for the risk that the Fed may only conduct a very short easing cycle and restart the interest rate hike soon. The US Treasury yield showed a V-shaped trend, and the current two-year/ten-year yields were 4.589%/4.270% respectively. In terms of US stocks, before Nvidia’s financial report was released, SPX saw a comprehensive decline led by technology stocks (-0.6%), and the Dow/Nasdaq also closed down 0.17%/0.92% respectively.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance TradingView
In terms of digital currencies, ETH led BTC to pull back after touching 3000 points again. The two are currently fluctuating above 51000 and 2900 respectively. In terms of options, the far-end IV generally slipped by about 1-2% Vol in the past 24 hours. The overall level of ETH was more than 2.5% Vol higher than BTC. The front-end IV rose significantly under the stimulation of its challenge of 3000 points, but the option trading volume did not see a significant increase. The game of 3000-C in various maturities occupied a large part of ETH trading yesterday. In addition, along with the price correction, Vol Skew also fell from its historical high, and even fell below negative values at the front end. Apart from the common positive correlation between the Skew indicator and the price in statistics, from the perspective of trading, the large number of BTC short-term Sell Calls, or the Long Call Spread (Buy ATM Sell OTM) formed on 29 MAR 24, also partially explains the decline in 25 dRR.
Source: Deribit (as of 21 FEB 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Laevitas, ETH touching 3000 did not lead to an increase in options trading volume
Data Source: Deribit, 3000-C becomes a market hotspot
Data Source: Deribit
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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