#BTC
1. Pre-Halving Rally
Approximately two months before the Halving, Bitcoin tends to breakout into a Pre-Halving Rally (light blue)
In previous cycles, Bitcoin would reject from the Macro Diagonal at the end of its Pre-Halving Rally
However in this cycle, Bitcoin is currently pressing beyond the Macro Diagonal
A Monthly Candle Close beyond this Macro Diagonal later this month would confirm a historic technical feat...
That Bitcoin has gone against the grain of history to break the Macro Diagonal in the Pre-Halving period
2. Pre-Halving Retrace
Historically, Bitcoin experiences its Pre-Halving Retrace a few weeks before the Halving
And this Pre-Halving Retrace would get prompted by a rejection from the Macro Diagonal
This was the case in 2016 and 2020
However if Bitcoin Monthly Candle Closes above the Macro Diagonal later this month...
The Pre-Halving Retrace could figure as a retest of the Macro Diagonal in an effort to turn it from old resistance into new support
3. Macro Diagonal Rejection
Bitcoin tends to reject from the Macro Diagonal Resistance in the Pre-Halving period
In 2016, this Macro Diagonal prompted the Pre-Halving Retrace
Whereas throughout 2019 and 2020, Bitcoin rejected from its Macro Diagonal on three occasions before the Halving
However, this Macro Diagonal weakens over time
In the Post-Halving period, this Macro Diagonal offers the last but weakest rejection before getting broken
4. Post-Halving Re-Accumulation
During this period, Bitcoin tends to consolidate following from its Pre-Halving Retrace
This consolidation figures as Re-Accumulation in preparation for the next breakout move
In the context of the Macro Diagonal, historically this Re-Accumulation phase has taken place below the Macro Diagonal
However should Bitcoin Monthly Close above the Macro Diagonal at the end of this month....
It's possible that in this cycle, the Re-Accumulation range would develop on top of the Macro Diagonal
As a result, the Re-Accumulation phase could facilitate the Macro Diagonal Retest (black circle)
5. Macro Diagonal Retest
Historically, this Retest tends to occur in the Post-Halving period
And it is this Retest of the Macro Diagonal as new support that enables Bitcoin to breakout to new All Time Highs and transition into the Parabolic Upside phase of the cycle
Breaking to new All Time Highs has historically occurred ~215 days after the Halving
6. Post-Halving Parabolic Upside
Once the Macro Diagonal Retest is successful, a Bitcoin confirms uptrend continuation that enables a breakout from the Re-Accumulation phase
Bitcoin then transitions into its most parabolic phase of the cycle
It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to Price Discovery and new All Time Highs
#BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
