The influence of macro sentiment on the currency market has weakened, the selling pressure of ETH has decreased, the transfer to mining POS has increased, and the funds in the market have tilted towards BTC

PhyrexNi · 2023-04-19T06:46:39.000Z

At present, from a macro market perspective, there are not many data that affect the market. I have said before that the current game is whether to raise interest rates in May. It is now very clear that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May, so it is not important whether it is the previous or subsequent data on the May interest rate hike, including the core PCE data that will be released next week, and Compared with inflation-related data, the financial reports of technology stocks that will appear next week may be more important. According to the currently known information, Netflix should be pretty good, Apple may be in danger, and Tesla also has good expectations. These leading companies There’s a good chance tech stocks will impact the price of#BTCand#ETHin the short term.

From the perspective of the macro market, there is not much data that affects the market. As mentioned before, the current game is whether there will be a rate hike in May. It is now very clear that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in May, so the previous and future data on the rate hike in May are not important, including the core PCE data to be released next week. Compared with inflation-related data, the technology stock earnings reports that will appear next week may be more important. From the currently known information, Netflix should be fine, Apple may be in danger, and Tesla also has good expectations. These leading technology stocks are likely to affect the prices of#BTCand#ETHin a short period of time.
In addition, judging from CME's futures data, BTC is still around US$30,260, and Coinbase's spot price is also around US$30,230. Although the price difference has narrowed to US$30 or lower, it is normal for CME's premium to shorten because it is not the main trading time in Europe and the United States. In particular, from the trading volume, we can see that the current trading volume of BTC in CME is basically the lowest point in the last 24 hours, while the trading volume of Coinbase is obviously higher, so there is no need to pay too much attention to it for the time being. Pay attention to the premium after 15:00 pm Beijing time.
Similar to BTC, the futures price of ETH in CME is currently maintained at around $2,100, with a positive premium of less than $5 over the spot price, and the trading volume has also slowed down significantly. Another thing that ETH needs to pay attention to is the funds. Judging from the trading volume and price trend in the past 24 hours, more funds have returned to BTC. The direct reaction is the decline in the exchange rate between ETH and BTC. At present, unless ETH has a stronger narrative, the phenomenon of short-term fund withdrawal may be difficult to reverse.
From the data of monthly delivery options, we can see that the biggest pain point of BTC is still 26,000 US dollars. The short-to-long ratio has risen from 0.82 last night to 0.84, and has risen by 0.5 in the last 24 hours. This also means that there has been an increase in investors who are bearish or hedged, and it has almost reached the highest value of the short-to-long ratio in the month. The nominal funds have also surged to 3 billion US dollars. In terms of the amount of funds alone, the game this month will not be small. Compared with BTC, ETH will be slightly better. Although the biggest pain point has not changed and remains at 1,800 US dollars, the short-to-long ratio has dropped from 0.67 last night to 0.66, and the number of investors who are bullish on ETH has increased slightly. However, compared with the lowest value of 0.56 before the Shanghai upgrade, with the end of the Shanghai upgrade, bearishness is still dominant.
From the transfer data of BTC, the transfer volume of BTC on the chain in the last 24 hours is about 120,000. This data is not high in the short term, especially after BTC broke through 30,000 US dollars, the liquidity did increase greatly. However, from the long-term data, it is still in a relatively high range of movement. Moreover, we have said before that this high movement and high turnover situation is positive for the rise of BTC prices. In layman's terms, when the transfer of BTC on the chain is more frequent, the price is often at a relatively high point. This also means that users are in high mood for turnover.
Going back to the detailed data, we can see that the long-term holdings of BTC, which consist of the overall profitable chips below $15,000 and the losing chips above $50,000, have not shown any signs of excessive turnover. The total movement in the last 24 hours is less than 1,000 BTC, with an average of only 41 BTC per hour. This shows that long-term investors are still very interested in BTC after breaking through $30,000. In particular, we can see that BTC, which is almost about to be untied above $31,000, has not shown any signs of moving. This also means that after many rounds of wash-ups, even investors who are currently losing money are relatively firm long-term holders. Therefore, we can see that the overall losing chips above $31,000 have a total movement of no more than 1,300 BTC in the last 24 hours, with an average movement of no more than 54 BTC per hour. Both long-term and medium-term investors have not responded to changes in short-term prices and macro sentiment.
Therefore, the focus of selling pressure is still on short-term BTC holdings, but even among short-term holders, investors who made more profits earlier below $26,000 have been leaving the market slowly, especially at around $16,500, where the highest single price position is held, with only a small number of people leaving the market, which also means that this part of the profit-makers will be more optimistic about the development of BTC. The focus of the selling pressure is still on the BTC held above $26,000 in the shorter term, with a very high turnover rate. Specifically, whether the short-term profit chips leave more or the short-term loss chips leave more, we will see through the detailed data later.
Next, we can intuitively see from the URPD data that the main chips are still concentrated at $30,000, and as the price fluctuations gradually begin to increase, at present, if the stock of 750,000 BTC does not exceed $3,500, it is still safe. If it exceeds, it may bring strong fluctuations. We have experienced this many times. The current situation is the safest. After $26,500, the chips are relatively dispersed, and it is difficult to form a one-time large-scale selling pressure. It is a good protection for the price of BTC. As for the upward problem, we talk about it almost every day. There is no resistance before $38,500. As long as the purchasing power and purchasing sentiment can go one step further and the macro sentiment does not drag down, there is still a chance.
In addition, judging from the selling pressure of BTC transferred to the exchange, as of 8 o'clock this morning, the selling pressure has shown a downward trend. About 22,000 BTC have been transferred to the exchange. Although the withdrawal data from the exchange has also declined, it can barely cover the overall selling pressure. This also shows that more funds are now moving towards BTC. Although it is less, it can still be seen that the exchange's holdings have declined. Then from the detailed data, as of 8 o'clock this morning, the selling pressure transferred to the exchange is indeed more short-term holders, of which short-term profit chips account for about 60.5%, and loss chips account for about 35.5%. It is obvious that low-priced chips are exchanged for high-priced chips, raising the threshold for BTC purchases and reducing the possibility of short-term selling pressure.
More friends may be more concerned about the data of ETH. From the data at 8 o'clock in the morning, the selling pressure of ETH transferred to the exchange also fell like BTC. About 196,000 ETH were transferred to the exchange, which was lower than the median of 200,000 in the past six months. This also means that the unlocked ETH has no intention of selling more. Instead, the withdrawal data from the exchange is gradually increasing. More than 216,000 ETH have left the exchange. Therefore, the purchasing power and buying sentiment of ETH are also very high, and more chips are leaving the exchange. And from the data of newly unstaked ETH, it can be seen that it is also in a lower state compared with yesterday. In the past 24 hours, there are only 776 validators, that is, less than 25,000 ETH waiting for unstacking. But there are 3,100 new validators, and nearly 100,000 ETH are in passive lock-up. This also means that more investors are still optimistic about the development trend of ETH and are willing to mine ETH through POS.
Therefore, through all the data today, we can see that the impact of macro sentiment on the risk market, especially the currency market price, is already very weak. However, it is undeniable that more funds are still flowing out of the currency market, which is not conducive to the rise of BTC and ETH prices in the medium and long term. However, in the short term, the continuous injection of USDT has also boosted the buying sentiment of BTC and ETH. In particular, more funds are still concentrated on BTC. In the short term, the purchasing power of BTC is still relatively strong.