The release of US PPI data was above market expectations across the board, weakening the case for a rate cut (traders believe there is an increased chance that the Fed will delay its first rate cut until after June).

- US PPI rose 0.9% year-on-year in January (market expectation: 0.60%; previous value: 1.00%) - higher than expected;

- US PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in January (market expectation: 0.10%; previous value: -0.20%) - higher than expected and higher than the previous value.

Long before this data, two other major data released this week were also shocking: the US CPI in January was higher than expected across the board, and the US retail sales data in January fell more than expected.

It can be said that the current economic data is developing in a direction that the Fed does not want to see: economic conditions are deteriorating and inflation is stubborn. In just one week, the narrative has changed - market expectations have moved closer to the Fed, postponing the first rate cut to June, and expecting 3-4 rate cuts throughout the year.

After the release of the PPI data, Fed officials seemed to be unable to sit still. Richmond Fed President Barkin said that the economic data in January was messy and not very good.

This is the first time that Federal Reserve officials have spoken so unconfidently in public since the shift in policy last December.

In addition to Barkin, two other Fed officials this week expressed very different interpretations of the CPI data:

Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee warned against delaying a rate cut for too long even if data showed consumer prices rose more than expected in January.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that while the Fed has made great progress in reducing inflationary pressures, it is not ready to advocate rate cuts based on some persistent risks. Relative to the collective expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, he expects two rate cuts this year because he expects the decline in price pressures to be uneven.

The Fed's arrangement of one of the most dovish and one of the most hawkish is somewhat intriguing. The Fed also seems to have lost its mind.

The consensus on the Fed's early rate cut has suddenly changed, and a huge shock may come in an instant. According to our calculations, the volatility of the global market next week may be twice as large as this week. Will the A-share market break through 2,900 points? Can gold hold $2,000? Will the US stock market fall sharply? Will the Bitcoin and virtual currency market pull back?

The trend of the US dollar index is the most concerned issue for traders around the world. If it starts to fall, the current level may be the top of this year. If it rises, it is likely to trigger a global stock market crash. The Federal Reserve is about to launch an action, and the global market is facing a small change. For investors, there are trading opportunities for about a month. $BTC $ETH $BNB #热门话题