#加息预期仍强，FOMC纪要会否再添鹰派信号？
$BTC $ETH There’s a time-lag issue that many people have overlooked regarding the FOMC minutes next Wednesday (November 18).
These minutes cover the October 27–28 meeting, when the Fed stood pat. The things that truly set the market off—October CPI rising 0.4% month over month, core CPI at 0.3% for the third consecutive month, and Waller publicly saying he “wouldn’t rule out 50 basis points”—all happened after the meeting.
So the minutes themselves are unlikely to tell you directly “how much they’ll raise in December.” Their value lies in answering another question: when the Fed stood pat in October, how many people internally were already getting restless? If the minutes show that “a growing number of officials believe inflation is proving more persistent than expected and that faster tightening is necessary,” the market will push the odds of a 50-basis-point move higher from the current ~11%. If the minutes still strike a “patient wait-and-see” tone, that will instead create an awkward divergence with the 89% probability of a rate hike already priced in.
Markets price the future; minutes show the past. What really matters is which side gives way first.
#FOMC #美联储 #BTC #宏观
$BTC $ETH There’s a time-lag issue that many people have overlooked regarding the FOMC minutes next Wednesday (November 18).
These minutes cover the October 27–28 meeting, when the Fed stood pat. The things that truly set the market off—October CPI rising 0.4% month over month, core CPI at 0.3% for the third consecutive month, and Waller publicly saying he “wouldn’t rule out 50 basis points”—all happened after the meeting.
So the minutes themselves are unlikely to tell you directly “how much they’ll raise in December.” Their value lies in answering another question: when the Fed stood pat in October, how many people internally were already getting restless? If the minutes show that “a growing number of officials believe inflation is proving more persistent than expected and that faster tightening is necessary,” the market will push the odds of a 50-basis-point move higher from the current ~11%. If the minutes still strike a “patient wait-and-see” tone, that will instead create an awkward divergence with the 89% probability of a rate hike already priced in.
Markets price the future; minutes show the past. What really matters is which side gives way first.
#FOMC #美联储 #BTC #宏观