Data: Nvidia beat estimates in 9 of its last 9 earnings reports, yet the stock was lower 5 days later in 7 of them.
→ Since August 2024, the next-day move was down 6 times and up 3; the worst was −8.5% in February 2025
→ The 5-day median is −5.5%; only May 2025 (+5.3%) and August 2026 (+7.0%) finished higher
I think beating estimates isn't news anymore; it's the bar. Worst case: if Tuesday's numbers come in strong again but the stock repeats the pattern, the 32% drawdown from the peak deepens; I'm watching.
#Stocks #AI
Watching: $NVDA $QQQ $SMH
→ Since August 2024, the next-day move was down 6 times and up 3; the worst was −8.5% in February 2025
→ The 5-day median is −5.5%; only May 2025 (+5.3%) and August 2026 (+7.0%) finished higher
I think beating estimates isn't news anymore; it's the bar. Worst case: if Tuesday's numbers come in strong again but the stock repeats the pattern, the 32% drawdown from the peak deepens; I'm watching.
#Stocks #AI
Watching: $NVDA $QQQ $SMH
