In the summer, they thought $60,000-plus was too expensive and didn’t buy. In September, they chased in at $80,000, and now they’re selling out at $60,000-plus—this wave of capitulation is hitting the very same group of people.
On-chain analyst James Check says this is the fourth “capitulation sell-off” since Bitcoin’s all-time high: daily selling has doubled from about $420 million to more than $850 million, with over 85% of selling coming from new buyers who chased the price near $80,000 in September. His mean-reversion index has fallen to Q18, meaning it’s in the cheapest 18% of its historical range. The last time it entered this “deep value zone” was in February and late June this year; before that, it was at the tail end of the 2022 bear market.
Meanwhile, analyst Benjamin Cowen also weighed in today: in midterm election years (2014, 2018, and 2022), Bitcoin made its final leg down in November and bottomed between December and January of the following year. This time, the weekly chart failed to hold above $83,000, making the previous breakout look more like a bull trap. He warned that the 200-week moving average may not hold either. In both 2015 and 2020, Bitcoin fell to around 30% below the average; by that measure, a move toward $40,000 isn’t out of the question. The Fed’s December meeting could be the catalyst for the final leg down.
But don’t just look at the bearish side: long-term holders have an average cost basis of around $49,300, and most are still in profit and have barely moved. After dipping to a low of $62,006 on Sunday, $BTC has recovered to around $64,800; $ETH is also down about 4% this week. Put simply, the main sellers this time are those who chased the price in September. Coins are changing hands; it’s not a mass exit. This whale’s take: the wave of capitulation isn’t itself a bottom signal—it simply tells you that panic is being flushed out. Whether the bottom comes in December, or the price first tests $40,000, depends on the tone set at the Fed’s December meeting. Until then, rushing to buy the dip or rushing to turn bearish both look like poor bets.
On-chain analyst James Check says this is the fourth “capitulation sell-off” since Bitcoin’s all-time high: daily selling has doubled from about $420 million to more than $850 million, with over 85% of selling coming from new buyers who chased the price near $80,000 in September. His mean-reversion index has fallen to Q18, meaning it’s in the cheapest 18% of its historical range. The last time it entered this “deep value zone” was in February and late June this year; before that, it was at the tail end of the 2022 bear market.
Meanwhile, analyst Benjamin Cowen also weighed in today: in midterm election years (2014, 2018, and 2022), Bitcoin made its final leg down in November and bottomed between December and January of the following year. This time, the weekly chart failed to hold above $83,000, making the previous breakout look more like a bull trap. He warned that the 200-week moving average may not hold either. In both 2015 and 2020, Bitcoin fell to around 30% below the average; by that measure, a move toward $40,000 isn’t out of the question. The Fed’s December meeting could be the catalyst for the final leg down.
But don’t just look at the bearish side: long-term holders have an average cost basis of around $49,300, and most are still in profit and have barely moved. After dipping to a low of $62,006 on Sunday, $BTC has recovered to around $64,800; $ETH is also down about 4% this week. Put simply, the main sellers this time are those who chased the price in September. Coins are changing hands; it’s not a mass exit. This whale’s take: the wave of capitulation isn’t itself a bottom signal—it simply tells you that panic is being flushed out. Whether the bottom comes in December, or the price first tests $40,000, depends on the tone set at the Fed’s December meeting. Until then, rushing to buy the dip or rushing to turn bearish both look like poor bets.
