While the market talked up a December rate hike, it slammed $BTC back down to $62,000—the rate hike hasn’t even happened yet, but the drop has already been priced in.
CME FedWatch data from November 14 showed an 88.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 policy meeting, and even an 11.5% chance of a straight-up 50-basis-point hike. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.15% on November 13, the 2-year at 4.88%, and the 30-year at 5.47%—all hovering around or above 5%.
The Fed’s own Financial Stability Report, released on November 13, was equally blunt: pressure from asset valuations remains elevated, and hedge fund leverage is at its highest level since records began in 2013. The report didn’t mention Bitcoin once, but its underlying logic—high valuations combined with high leverage, while interest rates rise further—applies to any risk asset.
The numbers behind this drop also add up: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, with a combined $1.907 billion flowing out from November 5 to 13. Spot $ETH has also fallen to around $1,711.
This whale’s take: This isn’t about one coin running into trouble. The whole “5%+ risk-free yield” benchmark is moving higher, dragging down the pricing anchor for risk assets across the board. Before the December policy meeting, just keep an eye on three things: whether the 10-year Treasury yield can get back below 5%, whether ETF flows turn positive for two days in a row, and whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 200-day moving average above $72,900. If even one of these happens, the pressure may ease a little; if none of them budge, FanFan should stay put and avoid making any sudden moves.
CME FedWatch data from November 14 showed an 88.5% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 policy meeting, and even an 11.5% chance of a straight-up 50-basis-point hike. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.15% on November 13, the 2-year at 4.88%, and the 30-year at 5.47%—all hovering around or above 5%.
The Fed’s own Financial Stability Report, released on November 13, was equally blunt: pressure from asset valuations remains elevated, and hedge fund leverage is at its highest level since records began in 2013. The report didn’t mention Bitcoin once, but its underlying logic—high valuations combined with high leverage, while interest rates rise further—applies to any risk asset.
The numbers behind this drop also add up: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, with a combined $1.907 billion flowing out from November 5 to 13. Spot $ETH has also fallen to around $1,711.
This whale’s take: This isn’t about one coin running into trouble. The whole “5%+ risk-free yield” benchmark is moving higher, dragging down the pricing anchor for risk assets across the board. Before the December policy meeting, just keep an eye on three things: whether the 10-year Treasury yield can get back below 5%, whether ETF flows turn positive for two days in a row, and whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 200-day moving average above $72,900. If even one of these happens, the pressure may ease a little; if none of them budge, FanFan should stay put and avoid making any sudden moves.
