#BTC Market Analysis 11/15
It just plunged to 61,899, then turned around and surged more than 2,700 points. Guys, are you starting to hesitate again: afraid of missing out if you don’t buy, but worried there’s another floor below if you do?
In this market, every time you dare to buy the dip, there’s always another dip to buy. So here’s the question: has this sharp rally finally marked a bottom, or will the price keep dumping after the bounce? First, let’s see whether it can reclaim a key level.
Yesterday, I warned that if 67,400 broke and the price failed to reclaim it on a rebound, I wouldn’t go long. After the drop, it never managed to close back above 68,000 on the 1-hour chart, then fell all the way to 61,899! Waiting for confirmation this time saved us from more than just a few hundred points. But it never reached the 69,500–70,300 short zone either, so it’s better to watch more and trade less in this market.
1. Still leaning bearish today, but don’t chase shorts near 64,000
The daily price is still well below the EMA200 at around 76,200, while the 4-hour EMA21 has fallen to around 69,080. The trend hasn’t recovered yet.
Over the past 24 hours, the price fell about 5.7%, while OI actually increased by about 4.22%. New positions are entering as the price drops, and sellers still have the upper hand. But this morning’s low has already bounced more than 2,700 points, so shorts aren’t guaranteed money if you just close your eyes and hold.
2. Stay flat and wait for 66,000–67,000; don’t force a trade in between
This area is close to the overnight rebound high of 66,200 and the 4-hour EMA7 at around 66,300. If the rebound enters this zone and the 1-hour chart closes back below 66,000, consider opening a small short position. Set a stop-loss at 68,100, with targets around 63,500 and 62,000; take profit in stages.
If the 4-hour chart reclaims 67,500 and holds it on a retest, cancel this short setup. Don’t simply reuse yesterday’s long setup that never triggered—67,400 can no longer be treated as the same long-entry support level.
One last reminder: there was clear buying support around 61,800–62,000, so if the price approaches that area again, watch for a rebound first. Don’t add to shorts, and don’t place a limit order to catch the dip either. It’s Sunday, so sharp rallies and sell-offs could both intensify. If you’re already in profit, take some off the table; if you’re flat, don’t get lured in by one big green candle.
Personal trading analysis, not investment advice.
It just plunged to 61,899, then turned around and surged more than 2,700 points. Guys, are you starting to hesitate again: afraid of missing out if you don’t buy, but worried there’s another floor below if you do?
In this market, every time you dare to buy the dip, there’s always another dip to buy. So here’s the question: has this sharp rally finally marked a bottom, or will the price keep dumping after the bounce? First, let’s see whether it can reclaim a key level.
Yesterday, I warned that if 67,400 broke and the price failed to reclaim it on a rebound, I wouldn’t go long. After the drop, it never managed to close back above 68,000 on the 1-hour chart, then fell all the way to 61,899! Waiting for confirmation this time saved us from more than just a few hundred points. But it never reached the 69,500–70,300 short zone either, so it’s better to watch more and trade less in this market.
1. Still leaning bearish today, but don’t chase shorts near 64,000
The daily price is still well below the EMA200 at around 76,200, while the 4-hour EMA21 has fallen to around 69,080. The trend hasn’t recovered yet.
Over the past 24 hours, the price fell about 5.7%, while OI actually increased by about 4.22%. New positions are entering as the price drops, and sellers still have the upper hand. But this morning’s low has already bounced more than 2,700 points, so shorts aren’t guaranteed money if you just close your eyes and hold.
2. Stay flat and wait for 66,000–67,000; don’t force a trade in between
This area is close to the overnight rebound high of 66,200 and the 4-hour EMA7 at around 66,300. If the rebound enters this zone and the 1-hour chart closes back below 66,000, consider opening a small short position. Set a stop-loss at 68,100, with targets around 63,500 and 62,000; take profit in stages.
If the 4-hour chart reclaims 67,500 and holds it on a retest, cancel this short setup. Don’t simply reuse yesterday’s long setup that never triggered—67,400 can no longer be treated as the same long-entry support level.
One last reminder: there was clear buying support around 61,800–62,000, so if the price approaches that area again, watch for a rebound first. Don’t add to shorts, and don’t place a limit order to catch the dip either. It’s Sunday, so sharp rallies and sell-offs could both intensify. If you’re already in profit, take some off the table; if you’re flat, don’t get lured in by one big green candle.
Personal trading analysis, not investment advice.
