#比特币活跃供应盈利占比跌破45%
Bitcoin active supply in profit falls below 45%
1️⃣ What does this mean?
Excluding coins that have not moved for more than 10 years, less than 45% of the active supply is in profit. Losses have overtaken profits, indicating that most recent traders are underwater.
2️⃣ Historical significance
When this indicator falls below 40%, it has historically often coincided with lows during market corrections. When it approaches 100%, the risk of a reversal increases. The market is currently in a “shakeout” phase.
3️⃣ My take
This is a neutral-to-positive on-chain signal: selling pressure is easing and the cost basis is moving lower. It is corroborated by extreme fear and continued ETF outflows. However, it is more of an early warning of a potential short-term bottom than a signal of an immediate reversal. A true rebound still depends on whether ETF outflows stop and macro conditions become supportive.
The contrarian window is opening. Manage your position size and build your position gradually.
$BTC
$ETH
Bitcoin active supply in profit falls below 45%
1️⃣ What does this mean?
Excluding coins that have not moved for more than 10 years, less than 45% of the active supply is in profit. Losses have overtaken profits, indicating that most recent traders are underwater.
2️⃣ Historical significance
When this indicator falls below 40%, it has historically often coincided with lows during market corrections. When it approaches 100%, the risk of a reversal increases. The market is currently in a “shakeout” phase.
3️⃣ My take
This is a neutral-to-positive on-chain signal: selling pressure is easing and the cost basis is moving lower. It is corroborated by extreme fear and continued ETF outflows. However, it is more of an early warning of a potential short-term bottom than a signal of an immediate reversal. A true rebound still depends on whether ETF outflows stop and macro conditions become supportive.
The contrarian window is opening. Manage your position size and build your position gradually.
$BTC
$ETH
