Whether rates go up in December may not be decided in December—it could hinge on the minutes coming out at 3 a.m. next Wednesday.
Minutes from the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting are scheduled for release at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on November 18, or 3 a.m. Beijing time on November 19. Here’s what to watch:
1. The October decision was 10–2 in favor of holding rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%. Cook and Hammack dissented, preferring an immediate 25-basis-point hike. The minutes will show whether any other officials privately favor moving in December.
2. Governor Waller said before October CPI was released that he still favored a December hike even if the data came in soft; if it came in strong, he would advocate a 50-basis-point hike. October CPI ultimately rose 0.4% overall, above the 0.3% forecast—right in the “strong” camp he described.
3. Chair Warsh gave no guidance on December after the October meeting, saying only that he would wait for more data. He also previewed plans to cut the number of rate-setting meetings to seven starting in 2027 and six in 2028. Discussion of this reform in the minutes is worth watching too.
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December. $BTC is currently around $66,500, $ETH hit a low of $1,878 early this morning, and the Fear and Greed Index is still stuck at 13.
This whale is watching three things: how many officials sound hawkish in the minutes, whether a 50-basis-point hike was seriously discussed, and whether Warsh’s silence means he has no firm view or is waiting for the data. If the disagreement goes beyond the vote count, December may not be the last hike; if it’s just talk, a 25-basis-point move could be a formality—and markets may breathe a sigh of relief. Don’t rush to bet on a direction before the minutes are out. There’s still a PCE report coming on November 25.
Minutes from the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting are scheduled for release at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on November 18, or 3 a.m. Beijing time on November 19. Here’s what to watch:
1. The October decision was 10–2 in favor of holding rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%. Cook and Hammack dissented, preferring an immediate 25-basis-point hike. The minutes will show whether any other officials privately favor moving in December.
2. Governor Waller said before October CPI was released that he still favored a December hike even if the data came in soft; if it came in strong, he would advocate a 50-basis-point hike. October CPI ultimately rose 0.4% overall, above the 0.3% forecast—right in the “strong” camp he described.
3. Chair Warsh gave no guidance on December after the October meeting, saying only that he would wait for more data. He also previewed plans to cut the number of rate-setting meetings to seven starting in 2027 and six in 2028. Discussion of this reform in the minutes is worth watching too.
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December. $BTC is currently around $66,500, $ETH hit a low of $1,878 early this morning, and the Fear and Greed Index is still stuck at 13.
This whale is watching three things: how many officials sound hawkish in the minutes, whether a 50-basis-point hike was seriously discussed, and whether Warsh’s silence means he has no firm view or is waiting for the data. If the disagreement goes beyond the vote count, December may not be the last hike; if it’s just talk, a 25-basis-point move could be a formality—and markets may breathe a sigh of relief. Don’t rush to bet on a direction before the minutes are out. There’s still a PCE report coming on November 25.
