This set of Polymarket IPO markets looks like it offers 9.5% upside. But when you do the math, it turns out to be fake.
On predict.fun, for “When will Polymarket IPO?”:
- IPO before the end of 2026: Yes 0.018
- IPO before the end of June 2027: No 0.838 (Yes is 0.162)
At first glance: 0.018 + 0.838 = 0.856, leaving a 0.144 gap to 1. After fees and slippage, that’s still around 9.5%. Looks like arbitrage.
Wrong. The problem is the window in between:
- IPO by the end of 2026: this position pays 1
- IPO in the first half of 2027: both legs pay 0
- No IPO at all: this position pays 1
The market prices the first-half-of-2027 window at 14.4% (0.162 - 0.018). Expected payout = 0.856, exactly the combined price of the two legs, before fees. That 9.5% comes from treating “pays 1” as a sure thing, without accounting for the risk of the IPO falling in that window. This isn’t arbitrage; it’s a bet that the window is less likely than the market thinks.
Two more catches: these prices haven’t moved in 2 hours—the same number across 5 scans, possibly a zombie quote. And even if you believe in that 9.5%, the algorithm says you’d need at least 49U to get in.
Numbers can deceive. The math can’t.
#预测市场 #Polymarket #Arbitrage
Trading involves risk. Invest with caution.
On predict.fun, for “When will Polymarket IPO?”:
- IPO before the end of 2026: Yes 0.018
- IPO before the end of June 2027: No 0.838 (Yes is 0.162)
At first glance: 0.018 + 0.838 = 0.856, leaving a 0.144 gap to 1. After fees and slippage, that’s still around 9.5%. Looks like arbitrage.
Wrong. The problem is the window in between:
- IPO by the end of 2026: this position pays 1
- IPO in the first half of 2027: both legs pay 0
- No IPO at all: this position pays 1
The market prices the first-half-of-2027 window at 14.4% (0.162 - 0.018). Expected payout = 0.856, exactly the combined price of the two legs, before fees. That 9.5% comes from treating “pays 1” as a sure thing, without accounting for the risk of the IPO falling in that window. This isn’t arbitrage; it’s a bet that the window is less likely than the market thinks.
Two more catches: these prices haven’t moved in 2 hours—the same number across 5 scans, possibly a zombie quote. And even if you believe in that 9.5%, the algorithm says you’d need at least 49U to get in.
Numbers can deceive. The math can’t.
#预测市场 #Polymarket #Arbitrage
Trading involves risk. Invest with caution.