PPI came in below expectations, but BTC still closed at a three-month low. I’ve been staring at this candlestick for ages, and I’m having a hard time making sense of it.
According to Rio Times, BTC closed at $69,556 on November 13, down 2.5% for the day and marking its lowest close in at least three months. October’s headline PPI rose 0.3% month over month, versus expectations of 0.4%. In theory, that’s bullish, but according to Crypto Briefing, BTC only briefly climbed back above $70,000 when the data came out. Different sources define core inflation differently, so I won’t quote a figure.
As for U.S. stocks, I couldn’t find a reliable source for the November 13 closing data, so I won’t speculate.
What should we watch next? I dug around on CryptoTicker and found a few specific levels. The intraday low was $67,922, just shy of the 200-week moving average, which they calculate at around $67,750 (not an independent source, so take it as a reference only). As for what it would take to rebound, they list a few steps: first, a weekly close above the 200-week moving average—that is, the UTC weekly close, which falls at 8 a.m. on November 16 in UTC+8; then reclaim the pre-data high of around $69,900; above that are the 200-day moving average at around $73,100 and, according to Glassnode, short-term holders’ cost basis at around $75,600. If those levels give way, Glassnode points to a cluster of coins bought earlier between $62,000 and $66,000 below.
These are all levels from other people, not my predictions. My take is that before the December 8–9 rate decision, BTC will probably keep reacting to the data rather than making an independent move of its own.
I don’t know if it’ll work out, but don’t rush to buy the dip before the weekly close. Wait for the close, and don’t go all in.
Do you think the $67,750 level can hold through this weekly close?
$BTC
#加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？
According to Rio Times, BTC closed at $69,556 on November 13, down 2.5% for the day and marking its lowest close in at least three months. October’s headline PPI rose 0.3% month over month, versus expectations of 0.4%. In theory, that’s bullish, but according to Crypto Briefing, BTC only briefly climbed back above $70,000 when the data came out. Different sources define core inflation differently, so I won’t quote a figure.
As for U.S. stocks, I couldn’t find a reliable source for the November 13 closing data, so I won’t speculate.
What should we watch next? I dug around on CryptoTicker and found a few specific levels. The intraday low was $67,922, just shy of the 200-week moving average, which they calculate at around $67,750 (not an independent source, so take it as a reference only). As for what it would take to rebound, they list a few steps: first, a weekly close above the 200-week moving average—that is, the UTC weekly close, which falls at 8 a.m. on November 16 in UTC+8; then reclaim the pre-data high of around $69,900; above that are the 200-day moving average at around $73,100 and, according to Glassnode, short-term holders’ cost basis at around $75,600. If those levels give way, Glassnode points to a cluster of coins bought earlier between $62,000 and $66,000 below.
These are all levels from other people, not my predictions. My take is that before the December 8–9 rate decision, BTC will probably keep reacting to the data rather than making an independent move of its own.
I don’t know if it’ll work out, but don’t rush to buy the dip before the weekly close. Wait for the close, and don’t go all in.
Do you think the $67,750 level can hold through this weekly close?
$BTC
#加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？
