Nvidia’s performance this week has me a little baffled 😅
In early October, it hit an all-time high of $243
A little over a month later, it closed yesterday at just $162.85
That’s a full one-third drop from the peak
Thursday was even more dramatic: it opened at $151 and plunged to $148.80 at one point
A 52-week low, before slowly climbing back
We all know what set it off
Jensen Huang resigned on November 12, and CFO Colette Kress took over on an interim basis
The board has reportedly been in talks with Arm CEO Rene Haas
Six straight weeks of losses—the longest losing streak since 2012
But the interesting thing is, the fundamentals haven’t actually fallen apart
Revenue last quarter was $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year
Third-quarter guidance was around $108 billion, versus market expectations of roughly $109 billion
Needham and DA Davidson cut their price targets to $200, but still rate the stock a Buy
Wells Fargo even maintained its $300 target
That’s where the disagreement lies
On one side: “The central figure is gone—can the AI story still hold up?”
On the other: “Earnings are still growing, and the valuation has already fallen to 11x forward P/E, its lowest since 2016”
We’ll get the real verdict next Tuesday
Earnings come out after the market closes on November 17, U.S. Eastern Time—early morning on November 18 in Beijing
The options market is already pricing in a move of nearly 10% in either direction
Then we’ll know whether Thursday’s $148.80 was a panic low or just halfway down
Whether this AI rally can keep going may come down to Nvidia’s earnings report
What do you think—will earnings night bring a reversal, or another wave of selling?
$NVDA $BTC
#CanNVDAReigniteAIRally #EarningsSeason #MarketWatch
Not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.
In early October, it hit an all-time high of $243
A little over a month later, it closed yesterday at just $162.85
That’s a full one-third drop from the peak
Thursday was even more dramatic: it opened at $151 and plunged to $148.80 at one point
A 52-week low, before slowly climbing back
We all know what set it off
Jensen Huang resigned on November 12, and CFO Colette Kress took over on an interim basis
The board has reportedly been in talks with Arm CEO Rene Haas
Six straight weeks of losses—the longest losing streak since 2012
But the interesting thing is, the fundamentals haven’t actually fallen apart
Revenue last quarter was $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year
Third-quarter guidance was around $108 billion, versus market expectations of roughly $109 billion
Needham and DA Davidson cut their price targets to $200, but still rate the stock a Buy
Wells Fargo even maintained its $300 target
That’s where the disagreement lies
On one side: “The central figure is gone—can the AI story still hold up?”
On the other: “Earnings are still growing, and the valuation has already fallen to 11x forward P/E, its lowest since 2016”
We’ll get the real verdict next Tuesday
Earnings come out after the market closes on November 17, U.S. Eastern Time—early morning on November 18 in Beijing
The options market is already pricing in a move of nearly 10% in either direction
Then we’ll know whether Thursday’s $148.80 was a panic low or just halfway down
Whether this AI rally can keep going may come down to Nvidia’s earnings report
What do you think—will earnings night bring a reversal, or another wave of selling?
$NVDA $BTC
#CanNVDAReigniteAIRally #EarningsSeason #MarketWatch
Not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.